☝ The BEST Week 1 fantasy advice

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

I don’t know about you, but after that Thursday Night appetizer, I’m hungry for the main Sunday slate. Let’s do this!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The BEST DFS and season-long plays of the week 🏆

• Sneaky low-owned players for tourneys 🤫

• All the links to my top DFS picks and information 💪 

• Fantasy-relevant NFL news and notes 🏈 

Each week this NFL season, I’ll be chatting with Rich Hribar from Sharp Football Analysis about some of the best matchups and DFS plays in the league. You can check it out right here.

RB: JK Dobbins (BAL):

On paper this matchup looks excellent. Baltimore is favored by 10 and Houston has some concerning defensive metrics that make Dobbins look really good this week.

Houston allowed 91.1 explosive rushing yards per game (most in NFL). Dobbins himself was 1st in explosive run rate (18.1%).

Houston also allowed:

• 5.2 yards per carry (3rd-most)

• 3.7 yards per carry after contact (2nd-most)

• 21.9 rushing fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (most)

As for the Ravens themselves, they are expected to turn up the pace with Todd Monken taking over at OC. Even in the preseason, they ran 11 personnel 75% of the time on pass plays, up from just 18.6% in ‘22.

So it may be time for an offensive unveiling for the new-look Ravens and Dobbins himself.

While we’re thinking of this game, check out the awesome stats tool from FantasyLife.com. It provides a ton of important info to help prepare for all your fantasy matchups:

WR: Courtland Sutton (DEN):

It’s still early in the week, but Jerry Jeudy may not play, and Sutton’s splits with and without him are night and day.

When Jeudy didn’t play, Sutton had:

• 183 routes

• 2.2 yards per route run

• 29.7% of the team’s targets

• 39.9% of the team’s air yards

His track record against the Raiders is also strong, finishing as a WR2 or better in 6 of his 8 career games.

Trying to save some salary space? You can also take a look at Marvin Mims, who’s priced at just $3,000.

He’s a splash play guy. He averaged 19.5 yards per catch in college, and 19 of his 20 TDs were of 20 yards or more.

On such plays in ‘22, the Raiders were:

• 31st in QB rating allowed

• 28th in completion rate allowed (47.2%)

These Broncos are looking good for Sunday.

RB: Raheem Mostert (MIA):

Things have broken in Mostert’s favor on the depth chart with Jeff Wilson Jr. opening the year on IR, and DeVon Achane still recovering from some summer dings.

Mostert ranked well last year in some important areas:

• 8th in yards per carry

• 4th in explosive run rate

• 12th in rate of runs to get a 1st down or TD

The matchup works too. The Chargers were poor against the run in ‘22, and they shut down Tua Tagovailoa last year. To combat that, Reebs and I expect Miami will try to run the football.

RB: Travis Etienne (JAX):

ETN may be overlooked this week due to the expected explosiveness of the Jacksonville pass game, but if you look at their games against Indianapolis from ‘22, they had their lowest pass rates of the year (45.2%).

That will set up a favorable game flow for Etienne.

And for all the Tank Bigsby hype this summer, Etienne was the one who played 70% of the snaps with Trevor Lawrence in the preseason. He had 65% of the team’s rushing attempts and ran a route on 64% of the drop backs.

Add it up and you have a nice little play for this week.

WR: A.J. Brown (PHI):

Typically A.J. would be a little expensive on a DFS slate, but this week it just feels like a good fit.

The Eagles’ opponent, New England, played man coverage at a 33.4% clip, which was 6th-highest in the league. This preseason, they were 4th in that category.

Brown excels vs. man, eating up 34.8% of his team’s target and getting a target on 31.4% of his routes.

RB: Brian Robinson (WAS):

Washington is a 7-point home favorite this week, which will create a positive game script for Robinson.

And Arizona was very poor vs. RBs in ‘22:

• 25th in yards per carry allowed (4.7)

• 25th in fantasy points allowed to RBs (15.5)

Plus, BRob has double-leverage points going for him, as Jamaal Williams at the same price will be highly-owned, and Sam Howell is expected to be one of the higher-owned QBs.

You can really get some traction with this situation.

Every single week this season, I’ll post videos of my chats with Jake Ciely of The Athletic, and fantasy football guru Ryan Hodge. We discuss the best Draftkings and GPP tournament plays of the week ahead.

If you want to check these out, subscribe to my YouTube channel here.

QB: Lamar Jackson (BAL):

Whether you’re playing a season-long league or you’re more interested in DFS lineups, Jackson is set up as a huge winner.

Even though he’s been sort of overshadowed in the rushing department by guys like Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts, he’s still averaging over 60 rush yards per game over the last 2 seasons.

As a bonus, he gets a huge bump at home, where he averages 11 rushes for 70.4 yards per game. That’s big boy production.

He also gets a home boost in completion percentage, and against the Texans, it’s tough not to want to play him.

QB: Justin Herbert, QB (LAC):

He’s a bargain on Draftkings compared to Lamar.

The matchup vs. Miami is incredibly favorable and the highest projected output on the slate this week. While Herbert doesn’t have big game every week, his output increases significantly in games where the O/U is more than 47. This week it’s 51.

In such games, his TD-to-INT ratio goes way up and his rushing output almost doubles, making him a great Week 1 play.

RB: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE):

Ezekiel Elliott or not, Rhamondre is still the feature guy.

The Eagles’ defense is strong, but their vulnerability is the short and intermediate passing game — slot receivers, TEs, and RBs.

That’s Rhamondre’s bread and butter. Start with confidence.

RB: Miles Sanders (CAR):

Sanders has switched teams and he’s got a nice price in DFS this week. The big question is whether his decline in passing game usage was a Philly problem or a Sanders problem.

Either way, Carolina should be a big running team with a rookie QB, and it may be a run-heavy matchup with Atlanta regardless.

He could absolutely get 20 touches against a poor defense.

WR: Jaylen Waddle (MIA):

If you want to grab multiple pieces of this matchup in DFS but can’t afford Tyreek Hill, Waddle can provide volume. He was actually more efficient than Hill in last year with Tua Tagovailoa.

If the game plays out as expected, he could potentially hit 7 or 8 catches this week.

TE: Mark Andrews (BAL):

It’s Week 1. Let’s go with the guy who we already know will be a huge part of his offense.

Andrews seems to be 100% healthy, and we haven’t really figured out which of the 3 Raven WRs will emerge as the top guy. It leaves Andrews to take up that role.

DST: Washington Commanders:

This is a great, affordable DFS fit this week.

But honestly, it might be as simple as streaming against the Arizona Cardinals in season-long leagues.

QB: Geno Smith (SEA):

Geno should come in at around 5% owned in DFS, making him a sneaky good pick.

Seattle plays the Rams, who couldn’t generate much pressure at all last season.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have a terrific implied team total of 26, and finished 8th in pass rate over expectation and 10th in explosive pass plays by the end of 2022.

RB: Raheem Mostert (MIA):

I’m expecting him to gain some steam over the weekend, but right now he’s sitting at about 5% ownership.

DeVon Achane’s status is still murky, and the Chargers were 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs per week in ‘22.

Chart courtesy of Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life.

WR: Calvin Ridley (JAX):

It’s always better to catch these guys early before their price rises, and I expect Ridley’s will do just that in coming weeks.

The Jags have an implied team total of 25, and by the end of last season were in the top-10 in pass rate in neutral situations.

WR: Mike Williams (LAC):

Chargers-Dolphins has the highest implied total on the slate, and Williams is being totally overlooked.

LAC was 3rd in pace last year and Miami was 4th in explosive plays when Tua Tagovailoa was at QB. That kind of matchup can really bode well for Williams.

It doesn’t hurt that Jalen Ramsey won’t play.

TE: Juwan Johnson (NO):

Johnson’s been popping a bit in preseason and he gets to face the Titans, who were 28th in fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Over Johnson’s last 7 games he ran a route on 70% of snaps and was top-10 in yards per route run.

DST: Arizona Cardinals:

Is this my favorite pick? Not by a long shot.

But hey, they’re cheaper than their opponents, the Commanders, who are chalky and are starting a rookie QB behind a suspect offensive line.

If we’re going to gamble, let’s gamble!

All first time users that deposit and use Promo Code: JHS100 will receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100.

If you deposit $100, PrizePicks will give you $100. If you deposit $50, PrizePicks will give you $50.

• D.J. Moore MORE THAN 47.5 receiving yards: Chicago wants to feature him as their WR1. The Packers allowed 96.9 yards per game to their opponents’ no. 1 guys in 2022.

• Tony Pollard MORE THAN 69.5 rush yards: He’s a hyper-efficient player who now gets to go solo after playing 2nd fiddle to Ezekiel Elliott for so long.

• Garrett Wilson MORE THAN 69.5 receiving yards: He was targeted 3 times on 8 preseason routes, and Aaron Rodgers called him special on “Hard Knocks.”

• Mark Andrews MORE THAN 57.5 receiving yards: He went over this number 12 times last year in an injury-plagued campaign from Lamar Jackson, and now the offense is expected to open way up.

• Bijan Robinson MORE THAN 67.5 rush yards: This line just seems a bit low for a feature back on a team that ranked 2nd in run play percentage in ‘22.

Say you deposit and play $10 on the 5-leg entry above:

• 5 correct “more/less” projections you win $100

• 4 correct “more/less” projections you win $20

• 3 correct “more/less” projections you win $14

It’s as simple as that! Don’t forget to check out 💥 My favorite PrizePicks & Bets this week.

Also… For Week 1 only, PrizePicks is offering a free square. If you don’t like one of my picks above, feel free to replace it with this.

💰 Bengals Lock Up Burrow: NFL's New Million-Dollar Man

😫 Chiefs' Defensive Dilemma as Jones Holds Out

🤕 Ken Walker Limited: Seahawks' Running Back Concerns

🚫 Lions' Moseley and More Inactive for Week 1

🏈 George Kittle Limited this Week for 49ers'

🔄 Waddle Upgraded to 'Full' Giving Dolphins' a Boost

❌ Travis Kelce Inactive: Chiefs' Week 1 Surprise

🥳 Nick Bosa Returns: 49ers' Edge Back in Action

🚔 Jimmy Graham Spared Charges in Incident

🏈 Joe Flacco Hopeful to Play in 2023

I hope you all start your season off on the right foot this year! Here’s to football being back! LFG!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

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