🥇 The BEST plays for DFS and fantasy in Week 5

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There’s no better way to spend Friday than figuring out how to spend your weekly NFL gambling money!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• 6 of Week 5’s MUST START players 🔥 

• LOCKS for DraftKings lineup builds 🔒

• Tournament PIVOTS for GPP success 🤑 

• The player NEWS from the last few days 🏈 

Each week this NFL season, I’ll be chatting with Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) from Sharp Football Analysis about some of the best matchups and DFS plays in the league.

Check out my YouTube channel for the videos.

RB: De’Von Achane (MIA)

Another week, another look at the explosive rookie. Fantasy players are glad this guy didn’t stick to track and field.

All of the other Miami running backs are either inactive still or a little bit banged up, including Raheem Mostert. It opens a huge window for Achane vs. the Giants, who have been very poor vs. basically everyone.

They’re 30th in the NFL in rushing points allowed to opposing RBs (19.1 PPG). They are 22nd in yards per carry allowed. That’s good news for a guy who seems to explode every time he touches the football.

According to the stats from Fantasy Life, Achane leads the league by FAR in yards per carry, and he’s 6th in total rushing yards despite not playing in Week 1.

RB: Breece Hall (NYJ)

Robert Saleh came right out and said there is no more pitch count, no more handcuffs for Breece. He’s fully healthy and the Jets are ready to unleash the guy. It comes at a perfect time just as the offense is starting to click.

The Broncos are just the 2nd team since the merger to allow 20 or more TDs in the first 4 weeks. A lot of that has to do with Miami’s Week 3, but still.

They’ve allowed:

• 5.8 yards per carry to RBs

• 25.8 rushing points per game to backfields

And it wasn’t solely Miami, either. They were also carved up by Brian Robinson and Khalil Herbert. Give Breece a look.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)

Hopkins hasn’t stepped in the way some of us thought he might over the summer. But, he’s been battling an ankle injury, and I think he’s ready to break out, regardless of the volume concerns on this offense.

Even without reaching the crazy expectations, Hopkins still has some highlights. He’s:

• 7th in targets per route run

• Targeted on 29.8% of his routes

And we may not see Treylon Burks this week.

The matchup is pretty good too. The Colts allow:

• 5.5% TD rate (21st)

• 70.3% catch rate (26th)

• 8.6 yards per target (24th)

So Hopkins could go overlooked from a DFS standpoint, and could also have a big-time week.

RB: Joe Mixon (CIN)

Are the Bengals broken? It’s tough to say at this point, but it hasn’t looked great.

Mixon has performed well when he does run the ball. He has a higher rate of explosive runs, more yards per carry before AND after contact, and a 1st down or TD at a higher than average rate of all RBs.

Arizona has looked better than advertised, but this week could be a huge course-correction week for Cincinnati. With no Tee Higgins, and a not-quite-right Joe Burrow, maybe they run the football a little more to get things going downhill.

That would spell good news for Mixon.

QB: Matthew Stafford (LAR)

Stafford is flying under the radar because the Rams have scored their TDs on the ground at a rate that’s higher than expected, but that may mean he’s in line for more passing TDs.

Stafford has thrown for 8 or more yards per attempt in 3 out of the 4 games so far, and they are throwing the ball at a very high rate. Those TDs are coming, guys.

The Eagles have been very strong against the run, but not so much against the pass. Don’t forget the wild card: Cooper Kupp may be back on the field this weekend. There are certainly worse QBs out there.

CLICK HERE for the #1 MUST START of Week 5

Every single week this season, I’ll post videos of my chats with Jake Ciely (@allinkid) of The Athletic, and DFS tournament player @RyanHodge. We discuss the best DraftKings plays and GPP tournament pivots of the week ahead.

If you want to check these out, subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) - $7,100

Not much to say that we don’t already know about Tua.

There’s one thing that might give us pause about this pick and it’s that the Giants are 8th in getting pressure on the QB. Ultimately it probably doesn’t matter though, since they are:

• Bottom 10 in opponent WR EPA

• 3rd highest adjusted net yards per attempt

• Bottom 10 in favorable pass EPA to opponents

So you can try to get after the QB, but if you don’t sack him and you can’t cover, you’re going to get burned. The Dolphins have one of the highest protection rates in the league anyway. Strength offsetting strength.

Not to mention how Tua gets rid of the ball so quickly anyway,

Tournament Pivot: $7,000, projected ownership 8-12% 

QB: Matthew Stafford (LAR) - $5,600

He’s way too cheap this week.

First of all, his offense is one of the highest volume and highest paced attacks in the entire league. Every week they are just throwing it all over the field to those receivers. Cooper Kupp is probably coming back this week. It’s an obvious boost in this matchup.

Speaking of the matchup, the Eagles are sort of struggling in their secondary right now. They’re weak against the pass, especially against TEs, and they’ve allowed guys like Sam Howell and Mac Jones to have success.

It all points to a potential big day for Stafford.

RB: De’Von Achane (MIA) - $6,100

Here’s what the RB1s of the Giants’ opponents have accomplished to start the season:

• 14-70-2

• 23-106-1

• 18-85-1

• 17-79-1

Combine that with Achane’s stats above and he’s got an excellent shot to get it going against this team that’s been sort of a dumpster fire on defense.

Tournament Pivot: $6,600, projected ownership 8-12%

RB: Isiah Pacheco (KC) - $5,700

This is a SMASH if you want to save $400 on DK.

His role has been creeping up and he’s coming closer to grabbing a bell-cow role. His carries have gone up every single week. From 8 to 12 to 15 to 20. He’s the clear option as the lead back for KC.

Last week against the solid Jets’ defense, he got 115 and a TD on the ground. So if you’re looking for big volume at a discount, Pachecho’s your guy this week.

WR: Jaylen Waddle (MIA) - $7,500

Tyreek Hill might be the obvious chalk, but all of Waddle’s numbers are in line with what we expected. In fact, his YAC is up this season, which is super encouraging.

The price on Waddle is sort of right this week too. In the past he’s been closer to the $8,000 range, making it tougher to get him into a Dolphin stack.

Finally, he’ll be relatively unowned compared to Tyreek, so it’s a nice contrarian pick if you want to go that route.

Tournament Pivot: $6,300, projected ownership 5-9%

WR: Cooper Kupp (LAR) - $8,600/Puka Nacua (LAR) - $7,700

We don’t know for sure if Kupp will be back this week, but even if he is, that’s not a bad think for Puka. He’ll snag some of the volume that was going to Tutu Atwell, who’s most likely to be the marginalized guy here.

The volume in that Rams’ offense is just so good for these guys. They are 1st in the league averaging 71.5 plays per game. Plus, the Eagles are 4th at 70.3. This is a great game to attack.

TE: Sam LaPorta (DET) - $5,000

Every week I have to remind myself that this kid is a rookie, because he’s breaking the mold. In four NFL weeks, only he and Evan Engram have 5+ targets and 4+ receptions in every game (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews do too, but they each missed a week).

LaPorta also has the 2nd highest target share among all TEs with a very healthy 85% catchable target rate from Jared Goff, according to the utilization report from Fantasy Life.

The Panthers matchup also provides the upside where LaPorta could get a bunch of yards and maybe even a TD. For $5,000, that’s where the money’s at!

Tournament Pivot: $3,200, projected ownership 3-6%

DST: New Orleans Saints - $3,000

This pick is all about the matchup. Mac Jones and the Patriots have looked just awful as we saw against the Cowboys last week. They’ve given up the ball 7 times this season already.

While the Saints’ offense hasn’t done enough to really support the defense, I like this matchup and the savings it represents for a lineup.

Tournament Pivot: $3,200, projected ownership 3-6%

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If you deposit $100, PrizePicks will give you $100. If you deposit $50, PrizePicks will give you $50.

• De’Von Achane MORE THAN 50.5 rushing yards: The Giants have allowed RB1s to go nuts against them all season. Achane leads the league in yards per rushing attempt by far.

• T.J. Hockenson MORE THAN 53.5 receiving yards: We think his volume will go up this week, and the Chiefs are actually 31st in catch rate allowed to TEs (85%).

• Isiah Pacheco MORE THAN 57.5 rushing yards: He’s seen his carries go up every week so far and is close to being called a bell-cow for the Chiefs’ powerful offensive attack.

• Matthew Stafford MORE THAN 277.5 passing yards: The Eagles have given up 290+ passing yards in 3 out of 4 games so far, and allowed pedestrian QBs like Mac Jones to throw 3 TDs. The Rams’ offense is way better.

• Juju Smith-Schuster LESS THAN 27.5 receiving yards: This game looks sort of slow, and Juju hasn’t eclipsed 28 yards since Week 1. Even though he’s had targets, he just doesn’t look like himself.

It’s as simple as that! Don’t forget to check out 💥 My favorite PrizePicks & Bets this week.

🐏 Rams Kyren Williams’ Injury Status: Did he practice?

🐻 Bears’ WR a Healthy Scratch again for TNF

🏆 OC Speaks on Cooper Kupp: Encouraging Report

🧀 Packers’ WR1 Limited but Back at Practice

🤕 Freiermuth’s Injury Concern: Steeler TE Situation

🙏 Ravens’ Bateman gets Positive Practice Report

😱 This 49ers RB Did Not Practice on Thursday

🐴 Javonte Williams Injury Update: Ready to Go?

🤦‍♂️ Struggling Stevenson Sees Setback 

🦬 Slight Knock on Knox’s Chance to Play 

Here’s to touchdowns on and off the field this weekend! Happy Friday, fans.

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