🙌 The BEST PICK in each round

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Just 6 Sundays left! We’re almost there!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Dolphin no. 2 may be as good as no. 1 🐬 

• The perfect time to draft this TE 💪 

• Late round PPR RBs 🏃‍♂️

• All the news from around the NFL 🏈 

Rd. 1: J. Jefferson (MIN), ADP 1.7, WR1:

I’ve been flipping JJ and Ja’Marr Chase all summer.

Now with the news about Burrow, Jefferson takes the cake as the best pick of the bunch.

He had 7 games with over 30 PPR points as fantasy’s WR1.

Stat-wise, he led the league in targets (184), receptions (128), yards (1,809), YAC (630), and route wins (328).

The Vikings passed on over 64% of their plays and averaging nearly 40 passes per game, and Kirk Cousins is one of the more accurate passers in the league.

The 24-year-old is about as sure a bet as you can find.

Rd. 2: J. Waddle (MIA), ADP 12.5, WR9:

Waddle is actually more efficient than Tyreek Hill:

• 1st in yards per target (11.7)

• 1st in yards per reception (18.1)

• 4th in yards per route run (2.81)

All it may take to close the gap between these two is a slight shift in target volume going in Waddle’s way.

Tua Tagovailoa’s health is the key, as Hill’s volume didn’t suffer when he was out, while Waddle’s numbers took a dip.

But Miami didn’t change much in their roster, so the core guys should be ready to run it back again.

Rd. 3: J. Gibbs (DET), ADP 26.1, RB11:

I keep going back to Gibbs because of the unique talent and circumstance combo. It looks like a good situation.

The RBs who left Detroit combined for 421 touches in ‘22.

David Montgomery will undoubtedly get his share, but Gibbs is the PPR darling hands-down with the better versatility.

In 2022, he ran for 926 yards and added 444 receiving yards.

I’ve teased Gibbs on PrizePicks before, but I’m doing it again because I really like the OVER pick on 625.5 rush yards. 

Rd. 4: Jerry Jeudy (DEN), ADP 39, WR23:

Sean Payton recently blasted Nate Hackett for doing a bad coaching job with the Broncos last season.

I think that’s a great sign for the offensive outlook, and Jeudy should be the WR1 on this team.

Even in a tough year, Jeudy was still 13th in fantasy points per target (2.04), and 19th in fantasy PPG (13.6).

With a little improvement from Russell Wilson, he has true potential to become a top 5 wideout this year.

Rd 5: Justin Fields (CHI), ADP 55.5, QB5:

Fields finished as QB5 in fantasy PPG (20.7), ahead of Lamar Jackson (20.3), who is far more expensive in drafts.

Fields was 2nd all time in rush yards for a QB in ‘22 (1,143), and 76.2 rush yards per game was 1st by a mile on the year.

Add it up and Fields was 1st in fantasy points per drop back.

With D.J. Moore in the fold, an improved O-line, and some mechanical improvement from Fields, he’s a great pick if you’re drafting a top QB.

Rd. 6: D. Johnson (PIT), ADP 60.6, WR28:

Johnson had the 13th target share (27%) and the 6th-most total targets in the league (147).

But he was 2nd in unrealized air yards (875).

I fully expect the Steeler offense to start the year better in ‘23, with Kenny Pickett taking a step forward.

Maybe Johnson can flip his 11th route win rate into more TDs.

Rd. 7: D. Waller (NYG), ADP 76.8, TE7:

Waller will be a tremendous asset for Daniel Jones.

He’s 1st in ADOT and deep targets, and 11th in yards per route.

He’ll immediately help the Giants improve on their 22nd-ranked 3rd down conversion percentage from ‘22.

With continued development from Jones under Brian Daboll, he may be my current favorite TE on the board.

Rd. 8: A. Gibson (WAS), ADP 91, RB28:

Even though Gibson lost some of his efficiency, he was terrific in some key areas:

• 9th in yards per route run (1.66)

• 12th in yards per reception (7.7)

J.D. McKissic had 40 targets in his 8 games in ‘22, and a 13.9% target share. He’s moved on from the Commanders.

That means Gibson’s 12% target share could rise, making him a great value with tremendous upside in PPR.

Rd. 9: J. Conner (ARI), ADP, 96.2, RB30:

Conner had a 71.7% opportunity share last year (8th). One look at their depth chart tells us that’s not changing any time soon.

This is a volume pick, if not an efficiency one:

• 12th in targets (58)

• 13th in receptions (46)

• 6th in snap share (70.5%)

• 10th in route participation (53.2%)

And it isn’t as though his efficiency is totally down the drain in his age 28 season. He was still 13th in evaded tackles (64), 14th in yards created per touch (3.10), and 4th in EPA.

Conner can be a very strong RB2 for your team.

Rd. 10: S. Moore (KC), ADP 116.3 WR56:

My confidence in Kadarius Toney has been shaken with the recent news of knee surgery.

So, I’m rolling with Skyy on this offense at the moment.

Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are both out of Kansas City, which opens up 135 targets and over 1,200 receiving yards. A good amount of production.

Reports are that Moore can fill that vacated role from the slot most often, and he’s feeling much more comfortable this season going into camp.

That should lead to more looks from the superhuman Patrick Mahomes, and will increase his fantasy value.

🤯 Jonathan Taylor Requests Trade from Colts

🏈 Diggs to Return: Cowboys CB Expected Back

💥 Falcons Sign EDGE After Stint with 49ers

🔥 Jets WR Let Go with Injury Settlement

💼 FA Fantasy Star RB Meets with Patriots

🛡️ Lions Safety Returns to Practice

🏈 Hopeful Dallas Rookie TE Clears Preseason

💪 Burrow Eyeing Week 1 for “Realistic” Return

👑 Mac Jones Ahead in Starting NE QB Race

💨 Cooper Returns to Browns After Injury

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!

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