✍️ The BEST fantasy football advice from this week

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Saturdays are for relaxing, spending time with the family, and crushing those summer best ball fantasy drafts!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• A few great fantasy targets 🎯 

• How to structure your strategy 🤔 

• Insights on late picks and league winners ✅ 

• NFL news from the last few days 🏈 

Let’s start with a couple of WRs going too late in fantasy drafts

Marquise Brown (ARI), ADP 59.3, WR30:

He’s is the big winner of DeAndre Hopkins’s release.

In the first 6 weeks sans Hopkins, he averaged 10.6 targets per game, and was dirty from Weeks 3-5.

He scored 20.8 or more every week in that stretch.

That includes 14 catches in Week 3.

In 8 total games without DHop, he had double-digit points in 7 of them, and had 15.4 PPG would have been good for WR8 over ‘22.

Over the year, he still earned a solid 23.7% target rate.

If Kyler Murray returns and can play like himself, he has an existing rapport with Brown to make things pop.

Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch are solid players, but seem the costars to Hollywood Brown’s star turn.

Diontae Johnson (PIT), ADP 63.6, WR34:

Johnson was a victim of circumstance in ‘22.

He was:

• 6th in total targets (147).

• 13th in target share (27%)

• 10th in red zone targets (18)

What’s encouraging is that Johnson did get open a lot.

He was 11th in total route wins (240) and ranked 4th overall in juke rate (15.1%).

With expected improvement in the Pittsburgh offense, Johnson can absolutely become a fantasy darling again.

Johnson’s current PrizePicks line is 850.5 yards.

He hasn’t had lower than that since 2019. I love the OVER.

Here’s are a couple of picks who could win you a fantasy football trophy:

Mark Andrews (BAL), ADP 29.8, TE2:

In the world of fantasy football TEs, there’s Travis Kelce and everyone else.

Andrews has the only TE1 finish outside of Kelce in 7 years, and the stars are aligned for a repeat.

The statistical signs:

• 5th in ADOT (9.8)

• 4th in RZ targets (18)

• 5th in deep targets (10)

• 1st in target share (29%)

• 1st in total air yards (1,109)

• 2nd in unrealized air yards (517)

The Ravens have some other auspicious signs beyond raw numbers for Andrews.

He was on a tear early last year as TE3 or better in 6 games before he and Lamar Jackson both had injuries.

New OC Todd Monken is expected to bring an increased percentage of passing plays, after Baltimore had been one of the most run-heavy teams.

Jackson and his pass-catchers have all expressed excitement about the new offense. The pace of play will be faster and the volume will go up.

With injury luck, Andrews can be discounted Kelce.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ), ADP 12.7, WR8:

Expectations are high in Jets country with all the new talent, including the legendary Aaron Rodgers.

QB could be what Wilson needs to be a league winner.

He may have already been there if it weren’t for Zach Wilson. Garrett scored 8.6 PPR points per game with Zach, 17.2 with literally anyone else.

Other stats of note:

• 11th in air yards (1,575)

• 6th in unrealized air yards (837)

• 19th in total yards after catch (365)

Garrett’s 19 RZ targets (9th) turned into just 4 TDs, so it’s possible we may see more scoring.

There may be a lot of mouths to feed for Rodgers in NY, but Wilson is the most talented of all, and has the best shot to emerge as the fantasy league winner.

My current top-3 picks

Justin Jefferson (MIN), ADP 1.1, WR1:

Receivers have leapfrogged running backs as the fantasy priority with the rise of PPR and backfield committees, so it’s as important as ever to grab the elite pass-catchers early.

Jefferson is a near consensus first pick because he’s just downright beastly as a player:

• Overall WR1

• 7 games with over 30 PPR points

• 2nd in fantasy points per game (21.7)

Stat-wise, he led the league in targets (184), receptions (128), yards (1,809), YAC (630), and route wins (328).

Adam Thielen scored 30 TDs over 3 years for Minnesota; his departure may actually open up more scoring.

The Vikings are a high-paced offense, passing on over 64% of total plays and averaging nearly 40 passes per game.

If you’re looking for guaranteed production, the 24-year-old is as close as you are going to get. If you have the first pick, pull that trigger and ride the wave.

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), ADP 2.1, WR2:

Chase is my 2nd pick, falling just a shade behind Jefferson due to playing with another superstar WR in Tee Higgins.

Still, that might not even matter as much as I think it does, as 8 of Chase’s top-10 weekly finishes in 2 years have come alongside Higgins.

But I digress check out the 2022 volume:

• 3rd in RZ targets (26)

• 6th in target share (29.3%)

• 9th in air yards share (36.6%)

In terms of production, things weren’t bad either:

• 20.2 PPR points per game (4th)

• 5 weeks of top-5 fantasy finishes

His confidence is sky-high after recently tweeting a Patrick Mahomes diss, but he’s got a pretty darn good QB too.

Joe Burrow is one of the most accurate in the league in terms of accuracy rating (8.2) and had 5th-most attempts.

Getting a piece of the Bengals offense is a very good idea for fantasy purposes, and Chase is the centerpiece.

Christian McCaffrey (SF), ADP 4.2, RB1:

Before the pendulum swings too far in favor of the WRs, let’s talk about one of the best overall fantasy performers of the last 5 years.

CMC is worthy of this top RB spot.

The 49ers clearly knew what they were doing when they got him mid-season. It was a terrific fit with 23 PPR points per game after Week 8.

But the best RBs in modern fantasy football makes their real bones in the passing game. McCaffrey was:

• 2nd in total targets (107)

• 1st in target share (21.8%)

• 1st in route participation (75%)

• 3rd in yards per route run (1.92)

Of course, he was 3rd in total TDs as well (13).

San Francisco likes to get its players in space where they can use their athleticism to pick up extra yards.

CMC fits that mold, and will continue to do so in ‘23.

I may have him 3rd, but walking away with him after your draft is a solid win.

💪 Pierce Improves Blocking; Surprise Offensive Upgrade

🏈 Washington RB Stuck on Special Teams… For Now

📺 Broncos' WR Studies Superstar’s Film to Unlock Secrets

🐈‍⬛ Panthers Sign DT for Depth; Roster Battle Looms

🐆 Jaguars' LT Suspended 4 Games; Depth Tested

🐏 Rams Add CB Reinforcing Secondary

🚗 Patriots Drive Bentley for Extension

🧲 Colts Waive DB/KR for Gambling Violation.

🤦‍♂️ Titans’ OT Suspended 6 Games; Blow to O-Line Depth

That’s it for today. Enjoy the weekend, fantasy fanatics!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didn’t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.