🙅‍♂️ Avoid These 3 Wide Receivers

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1. Diontae Johnson (PIT) ADP 40.4, WR19:

Basic stats look great from last year:

• Second in targets (10.6 pg)

• Fourth in target share (28.5%)

• First in routes run (37.1 pg)

Volume, volume, volume

However...

Big Ben drifted into retirement.

The keys to the offense are destined for rookie Kenny Pickett - No. 20 overall.

(closest comp: Ryan Tannehill, per PlayerProfiler)

If he isn't ready, it's Mitch Trubisky.

Do you trust either to carry Diontae to a top 20 WR season?

The Steelers could go even more run-heavy with Najee Harris. Last year:

• 381 touches at RB in '21 (1st)

• 425 routes run from RB (1st)

• Three-down player with young legs

+ competition from Claypool, Freiermuth, and George Pickens (No.52 overall)

Volume could drop off a cliff.

PrizePicks has Diontae's over/under at 1050.5 rec yards and 100.5 receptions

I'm parlaying the under on both.

If you disagree... feel free to fade me.

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2. Michael Gallup (DAL) ADP 116.6, WR52:

Don't be fooled into taking him as a late-season WR2.

Full ACL tear recoveries are very common...

But Gallup's injury was in Week 17 (surgery wasn't until February).

Is it possible there was even more damage than Cowboys are revealing?

Gallup also missed 7 games with a calf issue in '21.

C. Lamb is the clear No.1 here.

Dallas re-signed tight end Dalton Schultz.

And rookie J. Tolbert (3rd rounder) will be a Day 1 starter. Maybe he keeps the job?

3. Tyreek Hill (MIA) ADP 21.2, WR9:

It's a massive downgrade from Mahomes to Tua from an efficiency perspective.

Yards per attempt in 2021:

• Mahomes (7.4)

• Tua (6.8)

The volume drop-off will be painful, even if he digs deep into Waddle's target share.

Hill 2021 season was a bit concerning:

Career low in YAC per reception (No.42)

Troubling for a deep ball threat

Even more troubling for a deep ball threat...

Tua No.30 in passes over 20 yards in air.

TE Gesicki doesn't scare defenses like Kelce

Plus

RB36 Chase Edmonds will see plenty of targets out of the backfield.

Edmonds was...

No. 17 in RB targets last year in Arizona and was brought in to Miami to play a role.

Tua loves a dump-off when under pressure

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