❓ Allen Robinson or Jerry Jeudy in the 4th Round?

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Picture this.

You're on the clock, late in the 4th round of your fantasy draft.

You're in the market for another WR.

You check your notes and the best available, and you see this:

• Allen Robinson (LAR), ADP 45.6, WR22

• Jerry Jeudy (DEN), ADP 48.6, WR23

They had eerily similar 2021 seasons, and they have eerily similar outlooks now.

What do you do?

Personally, I'm going with Jeudy every time.

Here's why:

Both should see positive TD regression (Robinson 1, Jeudy 0).

It's even more likely, considering both benefit from massive QB upgrades.

But which QB provides the bigger edge?

I think it's Russell Wilson.

Even in a "down year," Wilson bested Matt Stafford in a few key areas:

• True passer rating: 7th vs. 9th

• Deep ball attempts: 5th vs. 9th

• Air yards per attempt: 1st vs. 6th

• Fantasy pts per drop back: 7th vs. 9th

(stats via PlayerProfiler)

Jeudy is arguably the more athletic player. Obvious age difference (23 vs. 29).

But the numbers back it up.

Jeudy is rated higher in the following...

• Juke rate (10.5% vs. 5.3%)

• 40 yard dash (4.45 vs. 4.56)

• True catch rate (84.4%, 80.9%)

• Yards per route run (2.01 vs 1.42)

• Yards per reception (12.3 vs. 10.8)

Sure, this was 2021, and you could argue ARob was a bit checked out...

But does Jeudy get open?

We know Robinson does from Reception Perception.

The short answer is Yes.

He was FIRST in the league in target separation (2.45 yards).

He just needs someone to get him the ball.

Jeudy is even more of an asset in PPR.

Robinson only played 26.3% of snaps from the slot in '21 (66% for Jeudy).

And don't forget the competition...

Cooper Kupp led the league in:

• Targets (191)

• Target share (31.7%)

• Red zone targets (38)

• Yards per route run (3.33)

That's a big mouth to feed. Robinson will be fighting for the scraps. Meanwhile...

Neither Courtland Sutton nor Tim Patrick cracked the top 30 in those categories.

And we just found out Patrick tore his ACL in practice and will miss the season.

To top it off, the Broncos have the easiest strength of schedule for WRs.

The Rams have the 7th hardest.

(@AndrewErickson_ FantasyPros).

PrizePicks lists Jeudy's O/U at 925.5. Robinson's is 850.5.

I definitely like the under for Robinson.

Yes, reports out of Rams camp are favorable to Robinson right now,

But I'm a numbers guy, and I'm going with Jeudy.

Did you agree?

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