🏆 The AFC/NFC Championship Preview

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 15,000+ fellow degenerates.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The latest NFL news ahead of the big games 📰 

• DraftKings picks for both matchups 🏈 

• The best DFS resources and links you’ll find 📈 

When you finish reading, I’m live on YouTube every Sunday morning from 9:00-11:00am EST. Come join us!

Calling all basketball fans! Check out Enjoy Basketball, a newsletter that covers all aspects of the NBA. Subscribe below:

✅ Marlon Humphrey Expected to Play Today

🦁 Ertz Will NOT Play for Detroit This Weekend

💪 Deebo Samuel Active for Championship

🐻 Bears to Hire Washington as Defensive Coordinator

✍️ Patriots to Promote from Within for DC Job

🔥 Mark Andrews Officially Activated to Face Chiefs

🚨 Chiefs’ Pacheco Questionable; Guard Thuney Out

👍 Flacco Supports Hamlin for Comeback Award

📈 Inactive List for Lions Revealed

⭐️ Chiefs’ Receiver Moore OUT for Sunday’s Game

🏈 Falcons Go With Raheem Morris for HC

🚔 Pats’ WR Boutte Arrested for Illegal Gambling

The early game features arguably the two best defenses in football going up against two of the most talented QBs to ever take snaps in the league. Something’s got to give.

The Chiefs just declared to everyone that they weren’t ready to cede control of the AFC just yet, and they’re going to make the Ravens fight for the right to go to the Super Bowl. For Lamar Jackson and company, a win would mean the definitive exorcism of the playoff demons and cement a new power in the conference.

Fantasy Life’s game hub doesn’t show too many mismatches in terms of statistics, but we know we can expect some fireworks from these two.

TE: Travis Kelce (KC) - $6,600

Kelce has looked so good lately that it’s hard to believe his last 100-yard game came all the way back in Week 7. He makes up for that with his big play ability though. Consider the TD he scored against the Bills that made his brother want to go shirtless in the Buffalo cold.

The Chiefs took advantage of a banged up Bills LB corps last weekend, and they got Kelce the ball. In fact, his postseason target rates are his 2 highest since midseason. I think that continues here. The Ravens have been pretty good against most TEs, but they’ve been had by stars like Trey McBride and George Kittle. Kelce is the biggest key to the KC passing game. He can get it going on Sunday.

WR: Rashee Rice (KC) - $6,500

It’s Kelce and Rice for the Chiefs’ passing game, as they command the majority of Patrick Mahomes’s targets. The question mark here comes from the fact that Rice looked a little banged up at the end of last week’s game, and it’s tough to predict how he’ll look against this excellent defense. Moving him around may not make much difference: the Ravens allow just 6.1 yards per target to slot WRs and 6.6 yards per target to outside WRs.

Still, this is a volume play. If Kansas City is going to have success, Rice will be a big part of that.

RB: Isiah Pacheco (KC) - $6,500

In the 5 full games without Jerick McKinnon, Pacheco has 107 of the 124 backfield touches for KC. AND he’s scored a TD in 6 straight games. We know the dude runs hard enough to break through drywall, and he faced a ton of stacked boxes against the Bills last weekend.

The offense will run through the two guys I listed above and Pacheco as long as the Chiefs are in the game. Do with that information what you will.

QB: Lamar Jackson (BAL) - $7,700

Getting to the Super Bowl would be big; getting past the Chiefs to get there would be massive.

Lamar has been an absolute fantasy smash lately. He’s gone over 20 points in 5 of his last 7 games, and he’s gone over 30 points in 3 of those. Last week it took time for him to get going in the passing game, with just 50 yards in the first half, but he’s going to need to heat up quicker against the Chiefs, who have allowed the lowest completion percentage in second halves this season. No one has thrown more than 1 TD after the 2nd quarter against them.

The blitz should be a factor in this one too. The Chiefs like to do it, but Lamar can handle it. He’s 4th in the league in terms of yards per attempt vs. the blitz this season.

WR: Zay Flowers (BAL) - $5,800

Not a single WR has gone over 73 yards against this Chiefs defense. They erase their opponents top WR. Flowers is a promising young player with a bright future, but he doesn’t typically go over 70 yards, either (6 games this year).

I’d be careful with Zay this weekend.

WR: Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL) - $4,400

If Flowers doesn’t produce, then who will? Do we get Mark Andrews back? Do you hold your nose and click Nelson Agholor? OBJ is not a comfortable click, but that’s what you get with a 2-game slate.

If Kansas City plays a lot of man and runs their blitz packages, there are some positive signals for Odell. When he’s working against man vs. zone, his numbers drastically change:

• 2.6 yards per route run vs. 1.7

• Targeted on 27% of routes vs. 19%

Plus, despite running hundreds of fewer routes than Flowers, he only has 18 fewer yards against man coverage on the SEASON. If you want to take a leap of faith with the veteran, you can do it.

RB: Gus Edwards (BAL) - $5,500/RB: Justice Hill (BAL) - $4,800

The Chiefs are very good at scripting teams away from their running game, because they can be vulnerable against the run. They allow 4.9 yards per carry to RBs out of shotgun formations, which is 28th, and the Ravens happen to run out of shotgun more than any other team.

DraftKings players are flocking more toward Justice Hill, who seems to have a bit more explosion than Edwards at this point. However, Edwards has out-touched Hill inside the 5 yard line, 20 to 4. He’s probably more likely to score a TD.

We’re all football fans, so we don’t need the Fantasy Life game hub to tell us that San Francisco has the edge in this one. For as explosive as the Lions’ offense can be at times, the 49ers have more star power, more consistency, and more efficiency.

Still, this is an exciting game for Detroit, who have just won their first 2 playoff games in the last 30+ years, and we know anything can happen on Championship Weekend.

QB: Brock Purdy (SF) - $6,400

Since Week 7, the Lions defense has some poor rankings against the pass:

• 30th in passing TDs allowed

• 29th in touchdown rate allowed

• 32nd in yards per pass attempt (8.8)

• Allowed 300+passing yards and multiple TDs in 5 straight games

Purdy, as we know, is one of the most efficient and accurate passers in the league, especially when he isn’t pressured. The Lions have to get after him and try to force some bad throws if they want to win this game.

TE: George Kittle (SF) - $5,300

The presence of absence of Deebo Samuel may help to determine how the rest of the SF skill players will shake out. Kittle always excels when one of the WRs are out, and he gets there with big plays and TDs.

In 159 pass routes without Deebo, Kittle was targeted on 23% of his routes (18% with him), and has 3.1 yards per route run (1.8 with him). Detroit ranks 24th in yards per target and 20th in touchdown rate allowed to the position.

RB: Christian McCaffrey (SF) - $9,000

The talent and production of CMC is obvious, but what’s interesting here is that the Lions’ strength on defense is against the run. No back has rushed for more than 69 yards against them this year.

Good run defenses have held CMC in check before… on the ground. He can still always get there through the air, and the touchdown prowess keeps him in play no matter what.

QB: Jared Goff (DET) - $6,300

The home-road perception on Goff is somewhat incorrect. He’s 7th in the league in passing yards on the road and he’s 9th in yards per pass attempt. There’s a little bit of truth to the idea he struggles in bad weather, but that shouldn’t be a factor in Santa Clara this weekend. Where I do see some issues is in the matchup and the pressure that SF can bring.

When pressured this postseason, Goff’s numbers are far less potent:

• 3 TDs vs. 0 TDs

• 42 of 51 vs. 10 of 19

• 9.2 yards per pass attempt vs. 4.9

The Lions need to focus on keeping Goff upright against the 7th best defense at generating pressure if they want him to perform.

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) - $7,900

I’ve been an Amon-Ra fan for the past couple of seasons now, and it’s starting to look like he’s matchup proof. Despite facing a tough matchup in the 49ers, he’s going to get volume. He has either 100 yards or a TD (or both) in every single game but 2 this year, regardless of who he’s faced.

It’s the other Lions’ WRs that are a little tougher to click. Josh Reynolds is kind of a touchdown-or-bust option, while Jameson Williams has a very high percentage of deeper, lower-hitting targets. His ceiling is only around 13 or 14 fantasy points.

TE: Sam LaPorta (DET) - $5,400

As good as LaPorta has been, the 49ers have the position on lock down. They’ve been very strong against the position, so I think that LaPorta will need a lot of volume or score a TD to get you there on DraftKings.

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - $6,400

San Fransisco has an excellent run defense… up the middle. They can be beaten on the edges, where they give up 4.6 yards per carry. In fact, the Green Bay backs gained 99 yards on 10 carries off-tackle last weekend. That’s why Gibbs is relevant here.

Gibbs gets the outside carries far more than David Montgomery (66 to 50), and he has scored 6 TDs on such runs to Monty’s 1. Then there’s the idea that he could be the dump-off option for Goff as a road underdog that may need more of those types of plays. It makes him a sneaky play Sunday.

Enjoy the games today before the long football-less months ahead…

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didn’t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.

Reminder, I’m live on YouTube every Sunday morning from 9:00-11:00am EST. Drop in chat that you found the show from the newsletter!