🧐 Advice of the Week

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Saturday night’s alright for fantasy football!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Who are the TOP fantasy DSTs? 💪 

• Where are the HIDDEN GEMS in your draft? 💍 

• The top fantasy football picks in round 1 🥇 

• A firehose of NFL player news 🏈 

First, some top-ranked fantasy DST:

New England Patriots

The defense might be the most appealing Patriot fantasy pick outside of Rhamondre Stevenson.

Belichick and Sons have built a solid unit that was the DEF1 in 2022, on the back of 10.9 points per game and 10 finishes in the top 10.

They tied for the 2nd most turnovers and 3rd most sacks in the league led by Matthew Judon, who had 15.5.

To cap it off, the Pats scored 8 D/ST TDs, which was 3 more than the next team.

They added talented CB Christian Gonzalez in April’s draft, so this unit may even stand to get better.

San Francisco 49ers

You want to argue that they belong in the top spot? You have a good case.

Nick Bosa anchors a fearsome defensive pass rush that racked up 44 sacks last season.

The team also forced 30 turnovers (T-2), and allowed the fewest yards per game in the league.

The only reason I have them second is due to having the 3rd hardest strength of schedule for defenses.

The Niners also have terrific skill position players.

Dallas Cowboys

On paper this unit looks like it will be one of the better fantasy units in the game.

Guys like Stephon Gilmore, Treyvon Diggs, and DeMarcus Lawrence on the same side will stop some attacks.

Plus, they forced the most turnovers in 2022, with 33.

Dallas is a safe draft choice if you don’t like the weekly pain of streaming your DST week-to-week.

Players going WAY too late in drafts:

Kenneth Walker (SEA), ADP 47.3, RB15:

When Rashaad Penny was hurt, Walker was RB8 in fantasy PPG while earning the 3rd-most RZ touches.

Mike Evans (TB), ADP 70.7, WR37:

He was 3rd in deep targets and 16th in ADOT in one of Tom Brady’s weakest seasons ever. He’s still a star and not yet 30 years old, so he’s got more left.

Gerald Everett (LAC), ADP 119.2, TE15:

Was 11th in points per game as part of one of the league’s best offenses. Finished 8th in yards after catch (302).

Kirk Cousins (MIN), ADP 111.9, QB12:

This guy is about as consistent as they come, and should once again finish as a QB1 for fantasy purposes.

He’s only failed to throw 30 TDs once in the last 5 years. With all the swag he showed on the Netflix doc, there’s no way he misses that mark.

PrizePicks has him listed for 29.5. I’m taking MORE.

Some hidden gems 💎

Skyy Moore (KC), ADP 118, WR56:

Just as I was joining the Kadarius Toney hype, he tweaks his knee along with my confidence.

Moore is drafted about 45 spots after Toney right now, which may represent better value even though he didn’t really establish himself as a great fantasy option in 2022.

Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are both out of Kansas City, which opens up 135 targets and over 1,200 receiving yards. A good amount of production.

Reports are that Moore can fill that vacated role from the slot most often, and he’s feeling much more comfortable this season going into camp.

That should lead to more looks from the superhuman Patrick Mahomes, and will increase his fantasy value.

If the chips fall, he could be a force.

Kenny Pickett (PIT), ADP 200.7, QB19:

Pickett had some strengths as a rookie, particularly on deep passes and passes under pressure:

• 1st in deep ball catchable rate

• 6th in deep ball accuracy rating

• 1st in pressured catchable pass rate

• 6th in pressured completion percent

The Steelers showed an uncanny knack for improvement around Pickett as the season wore on. The offensive line allowed 3 sacks per game from Weeks 1-9, and just 1.3 sacks per game from Week 10 on.

It’s that kind of momentum building that makes me believe in this team and its coaching staff.

Pickett himself got more comfortable too, throwing just 1 of his 9 picks after his first 5 starts.

I expect him to continue to take care of the football like he did in the back half of the season.

Finally, my top 5 OVERALL picks (PPR)

Justin Jefferson (MIN), ADP 1.7, WR1:

JJ is a consensus first pick because he’s a certified beast.

He had 7 games with over 30 PPR points as fantasy’s WR1.

Stat-wise, he led the league in targets (184), receptions (128), yards (1,809), YAC (630), and route wins (328).

The Vikings passed on over 64% of their plays and averaging nearly 40 passes per game, and Kirk Cousins is one of the more accurate passers in the league.

The 24-year-old is about as sure a bet as you can find.

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), ADP 3.2, WR2:

Trust me: you want a piece of this Bengals attack, and Chase is the top target on the team.

He averaged 20.2 PPR points per game (4th), and had 5 weeks as a top-5 WR. He was also 3rd in RZ targets (26), putting him 1st in expected fantasy points per game.

Honestly, he’s just a shade behind Jefferson in my rankings and has spent time at no. 1. He’s 2nd today because of slightly tougher target competition.

But overall there’s nothing stopping him from being one of the top guys in the game.

Tyreek Hill (MIA), ADP 7.9, WR3:

Hill earns targets whether or not Tua Tagovailoa plays:

• 1st in deep targets (36)

• 1st in target rate (33.6%)

• 2nd in target share (31.6%)

• 1st in yards per route (3.38)

He’s still one of the fastest guys in the league at age 29, and will absolutely produce again in Head Coach Mike McDaniel’s fast-paced scheme.

The one place where he could use a boost is in the red zone, where he only saw 11 targets last year.

If that goes up, Hill has overall WR1 upside.

Christian McCaffrey (SF), ADP 5.1, RB1:

CMC is a generational fantasy guy, worthy of the RB1 title.

After Week 8 in ‘22, he scored 23 PPR points per game, and that was on the back of incredible passing work:

• 2nd in total targets (107)

• 1st in target share (21.8%)

• 1st in route participation (75%)

• 3rd in yards per route run (1.92)

San Francisco loves players who can work in space, make guys miss, and pick up extra yards. CMC fits perfectly.

He’ll continue to do so, and boost any fantasy squad.

Cooper Kupp (LAR), ADP 7.3, WR4:

If it weren’t for the injury last season, we might be talking about a back-to-back WR1.

He was on-pace to finish as WR1 in fantasy PPG again (22.4), with very similar opportunity rates to 2021:

• 4th in target rate (31.5%)

• 3rd in target share (31.0%)

• 7th in yards per route run (2.61)

If Sean McVay can do his thing with his offense again, Kupp will prove his first-round value and then some.

He caught 145 targets in ‘21 and was on pace for nearly the same amount before getting injured last season.

🏈 Burrow Out Several Weeks With Calf

💪 Broncos WR Activated from PUP List

💰 Saints Secure Snapper With Four-Year Extension

🚑 Dolphins CB to Miss Months In Lengthy Recovery

💔 Turner's Tough Blow: OG Out for Season

🛫 Cook Considering Jets Likely Destination

🔥 Bills High on James Cook: RB Impressing Coaches

📝 Witherspoon With a Deal: CB Signs in Seattle

🏆 Bucs RB Has Hope for Roster Spot

😱 “Unsettled” QB Situation in Washington

It’s finally the weekend. Kick back, relax, and imagine what it will be like to watch football in just a few more weeks.

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

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