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š„ 7 WRs to 10x your league-winning chances
Target in every draft
WE ARE BACK.
It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.
Your Tuesday morning fantasy football fix!
Today in 5 minutes or less, youāll learn:
Why you should Chase this pick š
Does Moore have enough in Arizona? š
This LA rookie ready to contribute ā”ļø
Midsummer NFL happenings š°
JaāMarr Chase (CIN), ADP 2.1, WR2:
Iāve listed Chase as my 2nd pick, just a shade behind Justin Jefferson due to slightly more target competition.
That may not matter as much as I think it does: 8 of Chaseās top-10 fantasy finishes in 2 years have come when Higgins was also on the field.
Chase is a top wideout no matter how you slice it.
Hereās his volume numbers:
ā¢ 3rd in RZ targets (26)
ā¢ 6th in target share (29.3%)
ā¢ 9th in air yards share (36.6%)
Here are some production highlights:
ā¢ 20.2 PPR points per game (4th)
ā¢ 5 weeks of top-5 fantasy finishes
Joe Burrow is one of the best in the league in terms of accuracy rating (8.2) and had the 5th-most pass attempts.
Getting a piece of the Bengals offense is a very good idea for fantasy purposes, and Chase is the centerpiece.
Would anyone bat an eye if Chase finished as WR1?
A. St. Brown (DET), ADP 13.7, WR9:
I try to hype the Sun God whenever I get a chance.
He narrowly missed my receivers column the other day because I was writing about guys outside of the 1st round, and heās getting dangerously close.
He had the 8th-most targets last season (146) despite one game missed and a week with just 1 total target.
Amon-Raās metrics also put him in elite territory:
ā¢ 7th in juke rate (11.3%)
ā¢ 2nd in route win rate (52.8%)
ā¢ 9th in yards per route run (2.57)
ā¢ 10th in fantasy points per game (16.7)
He only scored 6 times despite 21 red zone targets (8th), so dare I say he may improve in scoring this season?
Even if Amon-Ra slips into the first round in ADP, Iām taking him. He has top-5 potential.
PrizePicks has him at 1,075.5 receiving yards for the SZN. I like him to hit it again.
Amari Cooper (CLE), ADP 34.2, WR17:
Cooper has been around a while, but heās still just 29 this year and has plenty left in the tank.
In ā22, he played with subpar QBs, as Jacoby Brissett is who he is an Deshaun Watson was shaking off the dust.
Another year with Watson has the potential to be YUUUGE.
Take a look at Cooperās volume:
ā¢ 12 in RZ targets (16)
ā¢ 12th in deep targets (24)
ā¢ 7th in air yards share (38.3%)
He was 15th in yards per route run (2.3) on his way to the overall WR10 finish. He was also 3rd in unrealized air yards (870), so thereās even more potential to be tapped.
Cooperās 8 pro seasons have seen 6 top-25 fantasy finishes, and thereās no reason to think that stops here.
If we get a modicum of the Deshaun Watson weāve seen excel, then Cooper stands to benefit with a big season.
D.J. Moore (CHI), ADP 46.9, WR26:
Did you know that Moore had the no. 1 air yards share among all NFL wideouts in 2022 (48%)?
He was also 4th in deep targets (29), so we know heās getting down the field.
He flipped that into 6 finishes as WR16 or better.
Whether or not Moore can improve from his WR24 finish will depend heavily on the progress of Justin Fields.
The Bears know this, and theyāve been working with Fields on his throwing mechanics and footwork.
Word is that these two have clicked really well, and that Fieldsās improvement is obvious thus far.
With other names in the WR room like Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, the offense is shaping up.
Itās Moore who should be the no. 1 guy.
Jahan Dotson (WAS), ADP 73.7, WR38:
Dotson is a 2nd-year guy who seems primed for a step forward in ā23.
He got hot toward the end of the season. Over the final 5 games he earned 7 targets per game and scored 3 TDs.
Here are some other highlights:
ā¢ 14th in ADOT (13.5)
ā¢ 14th in total touchdowns (7)
ā¢ 16th in yards per reception (14.9)
Sam Howell has been named the starter in Washington, with Eric Bieniemy calling the plays.
And while Dotson may still be considered the no. 2 on the roster behind Terry McLaurin, his talent is making fantasy managers look twice.
Keep Dotson in mind as a WR3 with a much higher upside.
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Q. Johnston (LAC), ADP 80.2, WR42:
The scouting report on Johnston is that heās a tremendous athlete with elite burst off the line and the ability to get open.
As a senior at TCU last year, he caught 60 balls for 1,069 yards and 6 scores.
On the back of a solid 21.2% target share.
But it may be the situation that provides the most optimism on the youngsterās outlook.
The Chargers threw the ball 41.9 times per game on average in ā22, with top WRs Mike Williams, who has durability issues, and Keenan Allen, who is an undeniable beast but is 31-years-old.
A little bit of youth could work out.
Plus, he immediately empowered his mom to retire upon being drafted. How do you not like the karma?
Justin Herbert recently praised Johnstonās ability to make plays and said he was going to be something special.
He may just get that chance.
Rondale Moore (ARI), ADP 131, WR60:
Mooreās injury-plagued recent seasons have many passing him by in fantasy drafts.
But I remember.
His 40-time, agility score, and burst score are 94th percentile or better, and they help him get OPEN:
ā¢ 21st in route win rate (45.6%)
ā¢ 13th in target separation (2.13)
ā¢ 2nd in target separation vs. man
He also has a crazy productive year on his college resume:
2018: 114-catches, 1,258 yards, and 12 TDs
The Cardinals have questions, most importantly around Kyler Murray, but DāAndre Hopkins is gone, bumping up the other WRs on the depth chart.
It puts Moore at WR2.
With a little injury luck, he could turn out to be a huge value.
āļø Jags Beef Up at Tight End
š³ Coltsā Owner Hints at Early Minshew Mania
š Broncos Keeping Fantasy Owners Guessing on RB
āļø Titans and Patriots Battle for Hopkins: Who Will Sign?
šØ Titansā QB Fighting for Roster Spot: Future Uncertain
š¤ Darnold Dealing with Learning Curve in San Fran
āļø Chargersā RB Could be Odd Man Out for Roster Spot
šŖ Rhamondre On Track for HUGE Role
šÆ Stroud Finds Favorite Target in Houston
Alright, Tuesday troopers, time to wrap up this wild ride! Join me tomorrow to keep that fantasy football edge over your buddies.
The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan ā pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.
If this one didnāt hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.