🛟 7 SAFE draft picks for the first 7 rounds

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Wednesday mornings are like waivers: no one’s favorite, but a necessary step on the path to weekend glory!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• How to give your team a strong floor 💪 

• Safe targets for 7 rounds of drafting 🎯 

• Stats and situations to consider 🤔 

• Fantasy-relevant NFL player news 🏈 

Round 1: Travis Kelce (KC), ADP 6.5, TE1:

Kelce’s stats speak for themselves. He was TE1 in:

• Catches (110)

• Yards (1,338)

• Touchdowns (12)

• Yards after the catch (609)

He also led the league in RZ targets, and was 2nd in juke rate and yards per route run.

Over the last 7 seasons, he finished as fantasy TE1 6 times. He finished 2nd in the other year.

Kelce is so dominant at his position, that he would have ranked as WR5 if you combined the positions.

And with questions surrounding Chiefs WRs, Kelce is the most reliable guy on the roster.

The bottom line is that he’s the safest TE, and one of the safest overall picks, in fantasy football. Invest your 1st rounder and enjoy the ride.

Round 2: Nick Chubb (CLE), ADP 17.1, RB5:

Chubb’s unwavering consistency puts him here.

He’s never finished a season with never fewer than 5 yards per carry.

He hasn’t been outside of the top-10 in fantasy points per game since 2018 (6th in ‘22).

Some of his highlights from last season:

• 4th in juke rate (40.4%)

• 1st in evaded tackles (133)

• 1st in total breakaway runs (23)

• 7th in breakaway run rate (7.6%)

Now that Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson are out of Cleveland, Chubb has the backfield on lock, and those two had 47 targets in ‘22.

Chubb is the focal point of the Browns’ backfield, a strong RB1 choice, and a safe bet for consistency.

I like the PrizePicks prop line on Chubb to finish with OVER 1275.5 yards rushing. Check it out:

Rd 3: R. Stevenson (NE), ADP 26.7, RB9:

Damien Harris is off to Buffalo and James Robinson has already been cut.

It paves the way for Rhamondre, who has elite athleticism, especially for a guy his size, and his 3-down skill set:

• 3rd in juke rate (40.5%)

• 3rd in evaded tackles (113)

• 4th in total receptions (69)

• 7th in receiving yards (421)

• 6th in yards created per touch (3.43)

New/old OC Bill O'Brien is expected to maximize Stevenson's usage. He knows Mac Jones works better when the play action is set up.

Rhamondre is a safe bet for high-level production. You should be able to slot him in as your RB1.

Round 4: Joe Burrow (CIN), ADP 45.3, QB5:

Joe Cool threw 36 TD passes and rushed for 5 more while finishing as 2022’s QB4.

On a per-game basis, Burrow scored about 3.9 points fewer than Jalen Hurts, who is being drafted nearly 20 spots earlier.

Burrow’s numbers continue to impress:

• 1st in accuracy rating (8.3)

• 2nd in deep ball accuracy rating (6.6)

• 7th in adjusted yards per attempt (7.2)

• 7th in under pressure accuracy rating (6.3)

With Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, still wreaking havoc on defensive backfields, and an O-line that’s much improved over the last 2 years, Burrow should continue to produce at his elite level.

Securing him as your starting QB in round 4 feels like the right spot. You know what you’re getting.

Round 5: Chris Godwin (TB), ADP 55.9, WR29:

He’s being undervalued right now due to Tom Brady’s departure.

Also because his ADOT (5.6, 99th) and yards per reception (9.8) cratering to career lows in ‘22.

However, let’s give him a pass, as he was recovering from a knee injury which may have kept him from getting down the field.

By all accounts he seems healthy this summer and is starting to feel his explosiveness coming back (per @AroundTheNFL).

Even with the injury, Godwin had good numbers too. His 104 catches were a career high, and he was:

• 13th in juke rate (4.7%)

• 6th in yards after the catch (487)

• 14th in contested catch rate (55.6%)

• 15th in fantasy points per game (14.9)

If Godwin is indeed healthy again, WR29 is a great value. Even if his ADOT doesn’t improve much, he’ll be an outlet for the inevitable weaker QB play, and should be able to produce as a solid fantasy option.

Rd 6: Dameon Pierce (HOU), ADP 66.5, RB21:

The narrative is that Pierce faded down the stretch. His injury was a big part of that.

Looking closer, from Weeks 3-14, he only had 2 games outside the top-25 PPR scoring for RBs.

He also finished:

• 10th in dominator rating

• 15th in yards created (718)

• 11th in evaded tackles (68)

• 6th in opportunity share (73.8%)

The Texans improved the run blocking prowess of the offensive line with the addition of Shaq Mason.

And while Devin Singletary has joined the squad, his presence might help to keep Pierce fresh.

Pierce is a safe bet to hang onto his high opportunity share this season, and a RB2 price tag is about right for him.

Round 7: Deshaun Watson (CLE), ADP 82.8, QB9:

Watson was obviously rusty in his 6 games in ‘22.

The rushing sets an intriguing floor; he was 10th in carries per game and 11th in yards per game.

The passing left us wanting for more, but if he’s an approximation of his 2020 self, he’ll be alright:

• 1st in yards per attempt (8.9)

• 5th deep ball completion % (50.8)

• 5th in fantasy points per game (23.5)

• 7th under pressure accuracy rating (6.7)

Cleveland’s pass-catchers, led by Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and newcomer Elijah Moore will help.

Basically with his history, a clean bill of health, and a full offseason of work with the team means we can expect a QB1 ceiling for Watson in 2023.

☀️ Sun God Shines: Lions’ WR Hungry for More Deep Targets

🔧 New Season, New Strategies: 49ers Poised for Offensive Retool

👍 Free Agent RB Declares Shoulder Fully Healthy

😳 Ready to Break Out: Steelers' RB Poised for Expanded Role

❤️‍🩹 Vikings' Rookie Nears Full Recovery, Primed for Training Camp Debut

🔍 NFL's Hidden Talent Hunt Offers Surprises and Gems

🐏 Matthew Stafford Backs Teammate: Confident in WR2's Comeback

👀 Ravens’ RB Eyes Enhanced Role, More Targets

💪 Packers’ LT Ready to Dominate After Knee Recovery

🐻 WR's Special Teams Play Crucial for His Future in Chicago

See you tomorrow. Cheers and Touchdowns!

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