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š“ 7 RB sleepers with LEAGUE WINNING upside
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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.
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Today in 5 minutes or less, youāll learn:
RBs you can draft AFTER pick šÆ
Why the numbers and situations line up š„
How to get the most of your draft picks šŖ
The latest headlines from preseason action š°
Devon Achane (MIA), ADP 113.7, RB38:
For a while it looked like Miami was in the market for a RB, but Achaneās performance seems to have quelled those rumors.
Coaches are now saying they think he can be a 3-down back.
His elite speed is well-known after his 40 yard dash at the NFL combine ranked 4th among all RBs in league history (4.32).
But it isnāt ONLY about his speed. The kid can play.
In ā22, he rushed for 1,102 yards on 196 attempts (5.62 avg) and handled a 12.3% target share for Texas A&M.
And over the last 2 seasons, he caught 60 passes for 457 yards.
If you saw his play the other day in the preseason, you saw flashes of what he can do, on both offense and special teams.
If he carves out a role for himself, this ADP is a steal.
Behind on NFL research and need to catch up before your draft?
3 recent newsletters your competition probably already read this weekā¦
- š 7 RBs who could challenge CMC/Ekeler
- š¤ The No. 1 VALUE in each round
- š„ 7 players about to GO NUTS
Kendre Miller (NO), ADP 148.4, RB47:
Miller was a workhorse for TCU in 2022, rushing for 1,399 yards and 17 TDs on a whopping 224 carries.
It earned him a 23% dominator rating.
He has some good size on him at 215 lbs, and does have some receiving skill, even though it wasnāt his forte in school.
The Saints will play their first three games without Alvin Kamara.
Those games are against the Titans, Panthers, and Packers. None of them really get me too worried about game flow or usage for the RBs while Alvin is out.
I also like him because of Kamaraās declining athletics:
49th in juke rate
48th in breakaway run rate
46th in true yards per carry
Basically, it took the no. 1 snap share and the no. 4 opportunity share for Kamara to finish as PPR RB16.
Miller recently said he could āpretty much do the same thingā as Kamara. If thatās true, heāll finish much better than RB47.
Miles Sanders (CAR), ADP 64.9, RB19:
Yes, Iām sticking with Sanders due to situation. He tweaked his groin the other day, but so far it seems minor.
RBs who left the Panthers had 483 touches in ā22. That opens up a boatload of work.
Sanders was still productive in Philly:
5th in rush yards (1,269)
9th in rushing touchdowns (11)
14th in true yards per carry (4.7)
Thatās not bad considering how much rushing opportunity Jalen Hurts ate up in that Philadelphia offense.
Carolina RB coach Duce Staley has been open about wanting to help Sanders recover some of the passing game production he hasnāt seen since his rookie year when he caught 50 balls.
As for touch competition, Chuba Hubbard is still part of the equation, but Iām not sold on him as a full time back.
He had just the 61st opportunity share in ā22, and sat on the bench behind DāOnta Foreman.
Ultimately, Sanders can improve on his 12.7 fantasy PPG this season on a team with fewer mouths to feed.
With the emphasis on the running game with a rookie QB, Iām betting on Sanders to top DāOnta Foremanās total from 2022.
K. Gainwell (PHI), ADP 163.5, RB52:
Gainwell gained a lot more carries down the stretch for the Eagles, splitting touches with Sanders over the final 4 games, and actually commanding more targets (FantasyPros).
And so far in camp, heās emerged as the feature guy for the defending NFC champions.
His bunker mates, DāAndre Swift and Rashaad Penny both offer raw talents of their own, but are also both injury risks. Gainwell has stayed healthy over his first 2 seasons.
Plus, in limited work in ā22, he still ended up 5th in fantasy points per opportunity (1.07) and 8th in EPA (9.6).
Drafting Gainwell may be a roll of the dice, but at this point in the draft itās worth it for the possibility in this high-powered Jalen Hurts-led offensive attack.
Roschon Johnson (CHI), ADP 156.3, RB48:
The key here is the 3rd down role.
Of the trio of Johnson, Khalil Herbert, and DāOnta Foreman, Johnson has been heralded as the best of the bunch in pass protection AND receiving skills.
Herbert and Foreman have never really been able to carve out their own roles as sustainable no. 1 backs, either.
Johnson has some good size to him, at 6ā and 219 lbs, helping him to force missed tackles at a 49% rate (FantasyPros).
And heās compared on PlayerProfiler to Josh Jacobs, who has been a productive asset for fantasy managers.
Johnson doesnāt have the hype of Texas teammate Bijan Robinson, but he may be able to leave his mark just the same.
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Kareem Hunt (FA), ADP 188.3, RB59:
Hunt has already received an offer from the Colts and visited the Vikings, and now reports are swirling that Arizona may try to grab him after Marlon Mack got injured.
The writing is on the wall for Hunt to be signed very soon.
Heās still just 28 and should have some juice left.
As recently as ā21 he was:
10th in true yards per carry (4.7)
6th in fantasy points per opportunity (1.05)
And last year, he didnāt get great usage, but still managed to be involved in the Brownsā passing game:
22nd in receptions (35)
25th in target share (8.7%)
18th in route participation (44.8%)
A lot of his value will depend on who ultimately pulls the trigger to sign him, but whoever it is will need the help.
Heās basically free in all formats.
Damien Harris (BUF), ADP 124.6, RB41:
Is he 2023ās Jamaal Williams?
His deal with Buffalo is a one-year āprove itā type, which will encourage him to continue his hard-running style.
He boasted the 8th juke rate (35%) despite injuries.
And ā21 was a highly productive campaign. He was a beast for New England, cracking the top 10 in:
TDs (15)
Rush yards (929)
Breakaway run rate (6.9%)
He was also 12th in red zone touches that season, which is his expected specialty with the Bills.
In ā22, Devin Singletary got 40 RZ touches (13th), but only scored 6 total times. Harris can improve on that efficiency.
If he does, heāll be well worth the pick.
š² Ravens' Isaiah Likely exits field after big hit
šāāļø Hunt explores Vikings fit; RB puzzle taking shape
šŖ Seahawk RB Walker returns to drills after scare
š Teagan Quitoriano reactivates in Texas TE Shuffle
š Raiders secure RB Thompson; fresh chapter begins
š Bills RB Cooks up TD in preseason debut
š Richardsonās ups and downs on display for Colts
šÆ Justin Fields dazzles; brings Bears new spark
š¦ Chubbās backup secured as Browns sign RB
š¤ Browns LB Phillips out for season; tough break persists
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