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🚨 7 players who will BREAK your league

🚨 7 players who will BREAK your league

Powder keg breakouts for 2023

Joe Holka
June 30, 2023

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

It is Fantasy Friday once again, fans. Let’s get it!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

Picks sure to make a splash 💦
Guys primed for big breakouts 🧨
Advice on how to approach them 🤔
NFL news, notes, and rumors 🏈

Bijan Robinson (ATL), ADP 9.8, RB3:

Make no mistake, Bijan is the real deal.

He’s my pick for the most fun guy to look up on YouTube, and had some big boy statistics in 2022:

• 20 total TDs

• 1,580 rushing yards

• 16.5 yards per reception

• 104 missed tackles forced (17.4% of attempts)

This is a guy with 3-down talent who was chosen 8th overall in this year’s draft. The Falcons want to use him.

And I think they will…

They were 2nd in run play percentage despite losing 10 games and often trailing in them. Rookie Tyler Allgeier had a great year, gaining over 1,000 yards on the ground behind a solid O-line.

Robinson is the better talent of the two and projects to take over a lot of that work.

It certainly doesn’t hurt that PlayerProfiler names his best comparable as Marshawn Lynch.

Whether or not we get Beast Mode 2.0, Bijan is well worth a pick and seems ready to become an early breakout.

Christian Watson (GB), ADP 40.4, WR20:

Watson’s got physical tools. He ranked 95th percentile or better in 40-time, speed score, burst, and catch radius.

He also knows how to make the most of his chances:

• 15th in yards per target (9.4)

• 12th in yards per route run (2.20)

• 16th in contested catch rate (53.3%)

• 1st in fantasy points per target (2.52)

• 4th in yards after catch per reception (per PFF).

All great numbers for a rookie.

Should we worry about the departure of Aaron Rodgers?

Well, fell all the way to QB18 in fantasy PPG in ‘22, and was 26th in QBR. His efficiency wasn’t there.

Jordan Love has been sitting and learning the game behind Rodgers for three years, and should be ready to go.

He will need a guy with Watson’s physicality to help him adjust to life as an NFL starting quarterback.

I think Watson can go OVER his PrizePicks prop.

It’s currently 765.5 yards.

A. Mattison (MIN), ADP 59.9, RB19:

Dalvin Cook is officially gone, and was trending downward in metrics. He was dead last in EPA and just 51st in fantasy points per opportunity, despite getting touches.

Those touches are about to go to Mattison.

He never had more than 12 touches in a game in ‘22, but if we go back a bit further we can start to see some potential.

When he was asked to be the lead back in ‘21:

• Week 3: 32 touches for 171 yards

• Week 5: 32 touches for 153 yards and 1 rec TD

• Week 13: 25 touches for 123 yards and 1 rush TD

That’s solid production on hefty workload numbers.

In ‘22 Mattison did find the end zone 6 times and ranked 13th in fantasy points per opportunity.

It could be that after 4 years as Cook’s understudy Mattison is ready to take on a leading role in the Viking backfield.

J. Smith-Njigba (SEA), ADP 60.2, WR31:

JSN only played in 3 games in ‘22, but had already established himself as a pro-ready talent with a huge 2021:

• 95 catches

• 9 touchdowns

• 84.8% catch rate

• 1,606 receiving yards

He also led Ohio State in target share despite playing alongside fellow pros Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson!

His PFF receiving grade was also best in the nation in ‘21.

For the Seahawks, he’ll have to find his way onto the field as Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are established veterans.

However, Geno Smith threw the 9th-most passes and had the 8th-most air yards last season with 30 TDs.

JSN’s 99th percentile agility score should help him to get open and help lift the Seattle offense another step higher.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX), ADP 66.8, QB8:

Splits from last season prove Lawrence is trending upward.

He improved in virtually every category after Week 10:

• Fantasy PPG: 16.6 to 19.7

• Yards per game: 230.6 to 254.8

• Completion Percentage: 64.3 to 67.2

(Stats from Rotoballer)

It’s worth noting that 19.7 PPG would have ranked QB7.

While the O-line isn’t considered one of the best in the league, Lawrence enjoyed the no. 1 protection rate as they were serviceable in that area.

Jaguar skill position players are all athletic and talented, starting with former dominator Calvin Ridley.

Vets Christian Kirk and Evan Engram also deserve props.

When you consider Lawrence’s upward trend and the fact that Ridley is in Duval to replace Marvin Jones, you can’t help but feel good.

Lawrence is one of the best young passers in the game, and will be ready to take a step forward in Year 3.

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Treylon Burks (TEN), ADP 68.7, WR36:

The ADP is creeping up…

That makes sense considering the promise Burks has showed starting with his years at Arkansas.

In 2021, he caught 66 passes for 1,104 yards and 11 TDs on a 29.3% target share.

There isn’t much NFL data, as he only caught 33 balls.

But he did get it going after his IR stint in Week 11:

• 7 grabs

• 111 yards

• 18.1 PPR points (WR12)

He was hurt again two weeks later.

On the season, Burks was 19th in contested catch rate, with 1.96 yards per route run (32nd).

Ryan Tannehill is more accurate than you think:

• 9th in red zone accuracy rating

• 12th in deep ball accuracy rating

• 4th in under pressure accuracy rating

He’s also 5th in yards per attempt (7.8) The only question is whether the Titans will throw more in '23.

Looking at the Titans’ depth chart and seeing the reports about how Burks is playing fast and hard at workouts, I think he’s about to emerge.

Juwan Johnson (NO), ADP 166.7, TE21:

He’s not exactly a hot commodity but he started to play well last year with Andy Dalton starting:

• 4th in TDs (7)

• 6th in ADOT (9.4)

• 9th in air yards (609)

• 9th in unrealized air yards (296)

• 12th in yards per reception (12.1)

New Orleans signed Foster Moreau this offseason, but Johnson should have the inside track as the established TE on the roster.

With the downward trend of Alvin Kamara and health questions around the starting WRs, Johnson is looking good for a nice bump in productivity.

Derek Carr is, in theory at least, an upgrade at QB. At the very least he was able to support some productive years for Darren Waller, including 2 years in a row as a top-5 TE.

Johnson is a huge value at current ADP that could pay off in an even bigger way.