🥜 7 players about to GO NUTS

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

We made it to the back 9 of the week! (Yes, that’s a golf reference on a football newsletter. So what?)

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Why it’s Chubb SZN in Cleveland 🟫 

• Danny Dimes is a VALUE in drafts 🪙 

• Titan Tight End ready to rock 🎸 

• Player news ahead of Preseason games 🏈 

Nick Chubb (CLE), ADP 17.8, RB7:

Chubb has a legitimate shot to finish as RB1 this SZN now that he’s seemingly alone in his backfield.

He was RB6 in fantasy PPG last season (16.6), and has been solidly in the top 10 every year since 2019. He’s one of the more consistent guys in the entire league.

One of the reasons is his terrific ability to move with the football:

• 4th in juke rate (40.4%)

• 1st in breakaway runs (23)

• 1st in evaded tackles (133)

But this year he’s in line to improve significantly on his 15th-ranked opportunity share (64.4%).

Kareem Hunt had 123 carries and 44 targets for the Browns in ‘22, and D’Ernest Johnson is also gone.

The overall offense looks better too, as Deshaun Watson has had a proper offseason.

I think of ‘22 as Watson’s recovery year. If he can be close to the guy we saw back in 2020 (QB6 in fantasy), the offense will soar.

As such, you can slot Chubb in as an RB1 without worry.

Chris Olave (NO), ADP 28.3, WR13:

Olave might actually be my favorite sophomore WR, even among names like Garrett Wilson and Christian Watson.

He earned a top-10 receiving grade from PFF, and the Saints have done well to put him in a position to succeed.

For a rookie, he really put together some strong highlights:

• 4th in deep targets (29)

• 12th in route win rate (48.1%)

• 3rd in air yards share (40.8%)

• 5th in unrealized air yards (845)

• 10th in yards per route run (2.57)

Derek Carr may not be everyone’s top choice at QB, but he can support good fantasy football WRs (see: Adams, Davante).

Plus, there are some questions about the other skill players on the Saints with suspensions and injuries.

Olave is the most consistent guy on his team, so I think he will surpass the 75.5 receptions listed on PrizePicks.

Daniel Jones (NYG), ADP 98.5, QB10:

Jones was actually a LEAGUE WINNER in ‘22 after being the highest scorer in the fantasy playoffs.

His passing metrics have never been elite, but he’s improved greatly under Brian Daboll and should continue to do so.

He was also:

• 5th in accuracy rating (8.0)

• 1st in true completion percentage (75.7%)

• 3rd in red zone completion percentage (64.3%)

Those are fine, and may or may not translate to fantasy success, but the rushing upside DEFINITELY does:

• 3rd in rush TDs (7)

• 5th in rushing yards (708)

• 5th in rushing yards per game (44.3)

Darren Waller, Saquon Barkley, and a cast of others are around to ensure Danny Dimes continues his upward trend.

James Conner (ARI), ADP 90.1, RB30:

Conner had a 71.7% opportunity share last year (8th). The Cardinals are considered a rebuilding team with not much in the way of touch competition in the RB room.

So drafting Conner as RB30 is about the volume:

• 12th in targets (58)

• 13th in receptions (46)

• 6th in snap share (70.5%)

• 10th in route participation (53.2%)

But he was still efficient in some areas as well:

• 4th in EPA

• 13th in evaded tackles (64)

• 14th in yards created per touch (3.10)

The fact is, Conner was 9th in fantasy PPG and he’s being drafted way too late because of his team and QB situation.

You won’t find anyone else this late in line for his kind of volume.

Nico Collins (HOU), ADP 116.9, WR53:

Collins is 6’4”, 215 lbs, and has been the clear Texan WR1 in training camp, building a relationship with C.J. Stroud.

Last year, Collins was:

• 4th in true catch rate (112.1%)

• 2nd in contested catch rate (66.7%)

That shows he can get open and make the tough grabs.

His best stretch came from Weeks 10-13, when he earned 9 targets per game and had 2 weeks as a top 25 WR.

Brandin Cooks is gone, opening up 93 targets in the Houston offense, and leaving Robert Woods, and John Metchie as the main target competition for Collins.

While I do like those guys to an extent, Collins is the favorite target down there, and has a shot to smash this ADP.

Draft for the potential value.

Calvin Ridley (JAX), ADP 35.5, WR19:

This guy was a bonafide star the last time we saw him healthy back in the Covid days of 2020:

• 1st in air yards (2,063)

• 1st in deep targets (40)

• 2nd in red zone targets (22)

• 2nd in air yards share (41.4%)

Training camp reports have been encouraging for a comeback, as he’s looked like the old Ridley in workouts.

In terms of the Jaguars’ situation, he’s a HUGE upgrade over Marvin Jones, who commanded 81 targets in ‘22.

Trevor Lawrence is a young QB on the rise, and is still considered a generational talent.

Ridley has a GOLDEN opportunity to reclaim his career if he can build a rapport with TLaw.

I’m in.

Chig Okonkwo (TEN), ADP 127.8, TE16:

The summer hype seems to have cooled on Okonkwo since the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins.

Rookies like Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid have taken the mantle of the most hyped young TEs of the moment.

Still, I think we should give Chig a chance.

Pro Football Focus named him to their 2023 “All-Breakout Team,” and Bleacher Report called him the Titans’ “most promising building block.”

And let’s not forget he had a really efficient year, especially for a rookie at a position where young guys often struggle:

• 11th in ADOT (7.9)

• 2nd in target rate (33.3%)

• 1st in yards per route run (3.26)

• 1st in yards per reception (14.1)

• 3rd in contested catch rate (62.5%)

Basically, if the Titans pass game was slightly better, Chig would be getting the same hype Kyle Pitts got last summer… but hopefully it plays out a little better than that did.

Ryan Tannehill is on no one’s short list of GREAT QBs, but he’s efficient when healthy and can support a solid fantasy TE.

Look for Okonkwo to improve on his rookie year and take a big step forward for fantasy managers in 2023.

🚀 Rookie Alert: Cardinals Could March to a new Tune

🛡️ Browns Boost D-Line: Harris Signs Contract

✨ Skyy Soaring in Chiefs Camp, Secures Starting Role

🏃‍♂️ Seahawk RB’s Injury Reportedly Not Serious

🆓 Hunt's Hunt Continues: No Contract for Kareem

⚖️ Panthers' Wave DT Penisini from PUP List

🏹 Commanders Fans to Get a Taste of Howell

🏟️ TE Washington Steeling Show as RZ Threat

❌ Marlon Mack Suffers Season-Ending Injury

⏳ Browns RB Ford "Week to Week" with Hamstring

Phew. Now that you’ve done all that work, go and start your weekend a little early. You earned it.

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