👍 7 MUST DRAFT (late) RBs

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Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The Packer PPR Value 🏈 

• A Revived Vet out of Washington 🚀 

• A Panther who can go for MILES 🐈‍⬛ 

• The NFL’s latest player news 📰 

Aaron Jones (GB), ADP 47.5, RB16:

Let’s kick it off in late round 4/early round 5.

Even at that spot, Jones remains criminally underrated as the receiver out of that backfield. He had a career-high 59 receptions (6th), on a 13.4% target share (9th) in ‘22.

By contrast, A.J. Dillon was a distant 43rd in route participation and 29th in target share. Not a threat.

And it isn’t as though Jones is an incompetent runner. He had 5.3 yards per carry and his career high in rush yards (1,121).

Plus, look at his athletic metrics:

• 14th in juke rate (29.4%)

• 9th in evaded tackles (80)

• 15th in breakaway run rate (6.6%)

As a bonus, Jones only scored 2 rushing TDs (5 receiving), so he may be in line for some positive regression.

Jordan Love is starting for the first time. That usually leads to heavy RB usage in both the run and pass games.

I think he will be a completely productive RB2 for your squad with the upside to finish as a lower-tier RB1.

Dameon Pierce (HOU), ADP 61.7, RB18:

At the round 6 turn you can find Pierce, who ended up being a dynasty diamond in the rough in ‘22.

In Weeks 3-14, he only had 2 weeks outside the top-25 PPR. He had 3 weeks as an RB1, and satisfying his fantasy drafters.

The Texans used him heavily and he showed some real skill:

• 10th in dominator rating

• 11th in evaded tackles (68)

• 15th in yards created (718)

• 6th in opportunity share (73.8%)

Check out his rushing/receiving splits starting around Week 3, courtesy of Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life:

The team invested in the O-line in the offseason, adding Shaq Mason as a solid run-blocking guard.

Devin Singletary is a Texan now. He could be a carry threat, but he could also help keep Pierce from hitting that wall.

With that in mind, he could be as good or better than he was.

James Cook (BUF), ADP 81.6, RB27:

Cook’s rookie year was pretty impressive:

• 3rd in yards per touch (6.3)

• 2nd in true yards per carry (5.3)

• 1st in breakaway run rate (12.1%)

With a professional offseason under his belt, he’ll be ready to improve on his opportunity share (just 31.2%).

The report on Damien Harris is that he was brought in to be a bruiser, particularly in the red zone, which may cap some of the rushing TD upside for Cook.

That gives Cook a significant chance to out-perform his current ADP and become a fantasy mainstay.

While I think he’ll go OFF in the pass game, the presence of Harris has me unsold on his PrizePicks rushing line of 675.5.

I think he’ll come up just short.

Antonio Gibson (WAS), ADP 104, RB32:

If you’re playing PPR, I do not mind Gibson as your RB3.

Even though he had lost some of his efficiency, he was good in some key areas, according to Fantasy Life:

• 12th in ADOT (1.19)

• 9th in yards per route run (1.66)

• 12th in yards per reception (7.7)

Additionally, he was 16th in RACR, or converting his air yards into actual production (512%), and 12th in WOPR, or weighted opportunity rating, which combines air yards share and target share (17.5%).

(Advanced stats per @MBFantasylife)

J.D. McKissic had 40 targets in his 8 games in ‘22, and a 13.9% target share, and is no longer a Commander.

That means Gibson’s 12% target share could rise, making him a PPR value with solid RB2 prospects.

James Conner (ARI), ADP 75.9, RB25:

Sometimes the fantasy community writes off veterans a bit early.

At RB30, I feel that’s happened with Conner.

Whatever you think of the Cardinals, they gave Conner a 71.7% opportunity share last year (8th). One look at their depth chart tells us that’s not changing any time soon.

So this pick is about potential volume:

• 12th in targets (58)

• 13th in receptions (46)

• 6th in snap share (70.5%)

• 10th in route participation (53.2%)

It’s not as though he’s inefficient at age 28:

• 4th in EPA

• 13th in evaded tackles (64)

• 14th in yards created per touch (3.10)

The fact is, last SZN’s RB9 in PPG is being drafted too late.

You won’t find anyone else this late in line for his kind of volume.

Miles Sanders (CAR), ADP 63.5, RB19:

The RBs who left the Panthers had 483 touches in ‘22. That opens up a boatload of work.

Sanders was still productive in Philly:

• 5th in rush yards (1,269)

• 9th in rushing touchdowns (11)

• 14th in true yards per carry (4.7)

That’s not bad considering how much rushing opportunity Jalen Hurts ate up in that Philadelphia offense.

Carolina RB coach Duce Staley has been open about wanting to help Sanders recover some of the passing game production he hasn’t seen since his rookie year when he caught 50 balls.

As for touch competition, Chuba Hubbard is still part of the equation, but I’m not sold on him as a full time back.

He had just the 61st opportunity share in ‘22, and sat on the bench behind D’Onta Foreman.

Ultimately, Sanders can improve on his 12.7 fantasy PPG this season on a team with fewer mouths to feed.

With the emphasis on the running game with a rookie QB, I’m betting on Sanders to top D’Onta Foreman’s total from 2022.

De’Von Achane (MIA), ADP 119.4, RB38:

For a while it looked like Miami was in the market for a RB, but Achane’s performance seems to have quelled those rumors.

Coaches are now saying they think he can be a 3-down back.

His elite speed is well-known after his 40 yard dash at the NFL combine ranked 4th among all RBs in league history (4.32).

But it isn’t ONLY about his speed. The kid can play.

In ‘22, he rushed for 1,102 yards on 196 attempts (5.62 avg) and handled a 12.3% target share for Texas A&M.

And over the last 2 seasons, he caught 60 passes for 457 yards.

If you saw his play the other day in the preseason, you saw flashes of what he can do, on both offense and special teams.

If he carves out a role for himself, this ADP is a steal.

🏃‍♂️ LB Barr Visits Giants: Will the Former Viking Find a Home?

🤔 Unsettled After All: Will Levis Leaves with Injury

📝 Ravens Add CB Darby on 1-Year Depth Deal

🏈 Rams' Surprise Fantasy Star? TE Hopkins Shines

🚑 Saints' RB Returns: Ready to Step Up in Vet’s Absence

🏈 Javonte Williams' Preseason Plan: Limited Snap Count

📉 Surprise! RB Davis Left Off Cowboys' Roster

🏈 Texans' QB Stroud Gets Second Preseason Start

🛴 Dolphins' LT Armstead Carted Off Field

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