💎 7 hidden gems for your draft

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TGIFFS: Thank God for Fantasy Football Season

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Turning up the volume for this Cardinal RB 🔈

• The hottest rookie in Baltimore 🔥 

• The free pick on the Pats 🆓 

• NFL’s latest news and notes 🏈 

Skyy Moore (KC), ADP 113, WR43:

Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman left 135 targets and over 1,200 yards of that sweet Patrick Mahomes production behind in Kansas City, and now Moore is getting the slot reps.

Combine that with the injury concerns of Kadarius Toney and Moore is a sneaky good pick.

He was actually 6th in yards after the catch per reception (PFF), and by all accounts is a super hard worker who is attempting to gain more traction in the offense.

In fact, camp has looked really good. Moore has run the most snaps of all the WRs with the starting offense.

Running the slot snaps in the Chiefs’ offense isn’t the worst job to have. He’ll be a reliable target for Mahomes, and take advantage of the high level of production.

The skyys the limit.

James Conner (ARI), ADP 76, RB26:

Conner had a 71.7% opportunity share last year (8th). In fact, he was on the field for 663 snaps (RB11), which was more than guys like Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Travis Etienne— DESPITE missing 5 games.

Per Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life:

So drafting Conner as is about the volume:

• 12th in targets (58)

• 13th in receptions (46)

• 6th in snap share (70.5%)

• 10th in route participation (53.2%)

But he was still efficient in some areas as well:

• 4th in EPA

• 13th in evaded tackles (64)

• 14th in yards created per touch (3.10)

The fact is, Conner was 9th in fantasy PPG and he’s being drafted way too late because of his team and QB situation.

You won’t find anyone else this late in line for his kind of work.

Luke Musgrave (GB), ADP 187.7, TE21:

It’s been no secret in recent days that the Packers plan to utilize their young TE in ways that may lead to a productive breakout.

Musgrave is 6’6” and 253 lbs., but moves like a much smaller man, which should help him find the space to work next to Christian Watson and company in the Packer offense.

In fact, the Packer pecking order behind Watson is totally unsettled at this point. Musgrave could end up being no. 2.

While his receiving numbers have never been eye-popping, he did handle a 12.3% target share in 2021 for Oregon State.

The Packers hold the 3rd-easiest strength of schedule for TEs (per FantasyPros), meaning if Musgrave is their guy, he’ll have plenty of chances to shine for Jordan Love.

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Zay Flowers (BAL), ADP 111, WR39:

If you trust guys like Peter King, Flowers is one of the most impressive rookies on the field in camps, showing the ability to separate from defenders and make tough catches downfield.

He was a 4-year contributor at Boston College, culminating in ‘22 when he gained 1,077 yards and scored 12 TDs.

The situation in Baltimore looks favorable for the youngster.

Odell Beckham has questions around whether he can still look like his old self, and Rashod Bateman has injury issues.

If something goes wrong with either of those guys, the odds of Flowers contributing week-to-week rise dramatically.

Plus the volume should be there in the new-look Raven attack.

I expect we’ll all know this kid by midseason.

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ), ADP 116.3, QB16:

The 39-year-old didn’t always look himself in 2022.

Word is that this may have been due to a fracture in his thumb that prevented him from making the throws we’ve become accustomed to over the past 18 seasons.

And yet, he still had some decent stuff going:

• 9th in air yards (4,346)

• 12th in money throws (22)

• 5th in RZ completion percentage (63%)

But we don’t need to look at metrics to know what Rodgers is capable of. We’ve seen it.

If you’ve seen any of HBO’s Hard Knocks, you know he’s been relaxed, happy, and building good relationships with everyone around him in New York.

He’s healthy now, so if last year’s struggles were mainly a symptom of a fracture, then this could be one of the better QB values on the fantasy football draft board.

DeVante Parker (NE), ADP 238.9, WR78:

Aside from Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriot players are basically free in 2023’s fantasy drafts.

But did you know Parker had the 3rd-highest ADOT in the NFL? (From @MBFantasylife):

Alright, so that alone isn’t going to be enough. The raw production numbers were not impressive as Mac Jones struggled mightily last season. So why look at Parker?

Well, he clearly factors into the team’s plans after signing a 3-year extension in the offseason.

And there’s no doubt the offense will run more effectively with new/old offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.

And even though he had some poor metrics, he had some pretty good ones as well:

• 2nd in yards per target (11.9)

• 4th in yards per reception (17.4)

• 5th in fantasy points per target (2.19)

So if the extension gives us a clue to how much the Pats wants to use him, and that comes to fruition, then he has potential to produce far more than a free ADP would indicate.

Antonio Gibson (WAS), ADP 103.5, RB33:

If you’re playing PPR, I do not mind Gibson as your RB3.

Even though he had lost some of his efficiency by last season, he was good in some key areas:

• 12th in ADOT (1.19)

• 9th in yards per route run (1.66)

• 12th in yards per reception (7.7)

Additionally, he was 16th in RACR, or converting his air yards into actual production (512%), and 12th in WOPR, or weighted opportunity rating, which combines air yards share and target share (17.5%).

(Advanced stats per @MBFantasylife)

J.D. McKissic had 40 targets in his 8 games in ‘22, and a 13.9% target share, and is no longer a Commander.

That means Gibson’s 12% target share could rise, making him a PPR value with solid RB2 prospects.

🔄 Cards Trade for Dobbs: QB Competition with McCoy

🏈 Jerry Jeudy Expected to be Out for Weeks

🦶 McLaurin's Toe Woes: Opener Uncertain

🏃‍♂️ Rams RB Making Impact Felt in Passing Game

🎯 Run it Back: Keenan Allen Focal Point in Offense Again

🛡️ Jamal Adams Returns: Seahawks' Safety Ready

🔄 Cards Deal O-Line: Josh Jones to Texans

🥇 Palmer Rising: Chargers WR Earns Reps

📈 Josh Downs Impresses: Colts' Volume Target

🏈 Sam LaPorta 2nd ONLY to Sun God on Lions

Another week gone, another week closer to the season.

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