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- 🚨 6 to Target or Fade
6 to Target or Fade
Let’s face it: there are some players the fantasy community just has wrong every year. Here are 6 guys either worth drafting or ignoring at their current ADPs.
#3 TARGET: Calvin Ridley (TEN), ADP 68, WR31
Calvin Ridley cleared 1,000 yards last year... in an offense where half his targets from Will Levis weren’t even catchable. He led the league in air yards, but the film showed how many of those deep shots had zero shot of connecting. But now he’s the locked-in WR1 in Tennessee — and the Titans just drafted Cam Ward with the No. 1 overall pick. Ward has a cannon, and the coaching staff wants to modernize the offense.
So if the system tilts even slightly pass-heavy — and Ward hits on just a few of those deep shots — Ridley’s combination of 23.7% target share and elite route volume makes him the WR2 you steal in Round 6. This is the clearest post-hype WR SMASH on the board.
#3 FADE: Tank Bigsby (JAX), ADP 155, RB48
Alright, he’s not exactly flying off draft boards, but I felt the need to include him. Bigsby ranked 3rd in yards after contact and tied for 13th in missed tackles forced per carry last year — the raw talent is real. But Jacksonville’s backfield just got more crowded. The Jaguars drafted two new rookie backs to add to Travis Etienne’s backfield.
So even if Bigsby' pops, you’re praying for goal-line scraps in a four-man committee with no PPR juice. That’s not worth the bet.
#2 TARGET: Zach Charbonnet (SEA), ADP 114.5, RB38
Zach Charbonnet quietly finished Top-10 in yards per touch, routes run, and juke rate in 2024 — despite being a backup. When Kenneth Walker missed time, Charbonnet averaged 18.3 touches and 100.3 total yards per game — and posted three Top-8 RB weeks. But the Seahawks completely overhauled their staff. They plan on using a fullback. They’re building to smash the ball between the tackles. Seattle also faces the 6th easiest rushing schedule across the first 10 weeks.
So, whether Walker gets banged up again… or the offense starts leaning toward efficiency over explosion, Charbonnet’s workload is going UP — and he’s one injury away from being a Top-12 RB that you drafted 50 picks late. This is the definition of a league-winning handcuff.
#2 FADE: Jonnu Smith (PIT), ADP 122, TE13
Smith posted elite usage when schemed by Mike McDaniel — he ranked 2nd in yards per route run vs. zone and 3rd in slot rate among tight ends last year. But, he lands in Pittsburgh with Pat Freiermuth still on the roster, which is fantasy cannibalism for both of them. Add in Russell Wilson, who targeted TEs just 11.6% of the time in Denver — the 3rd-lowest rate in the league — and you’ve got a volume squeeze from every angle.
So, Jonnu’s role might be real, but it’s not bankable for fantasy. TE13 assumes solo usage — and this is clearly a split job in a low-volume passing scheme. Fade.
#1 TARGET: Tetairoa McMillan (CAR), ADP 59.8, WR28
Tet McMillan has EVERYTHING you want in a breakout rookie: back-to-back 1,300+ yard seasons, elite size at 6’4” 219, and route metrics in the 81st percentile vs zone and 70th vs man. But the Panthers WR room is a ghost town: Adam Thielen is 35, Xavier Legette has yet to pop, and Jaylen Coker is just depth. There is ZERO established target competition.
So, you’re telling me this size-speed freak with elite ball skills just walked into 120+ targets… in a system BUILT FOR HIM? Don’t overthink it. WR2 numbers are well within range. This is the best rookie pick outside the first couple of rounds.
That’s the list. If you want to be prepared for your draft, you need to think about players like this all summer long.
Want to actually beat your friends in fantasy this year? Only a few dozen spots left for my 2025 Draft Kit inside The Fantasy Accelerator. Over 12,000 players used it to crush drafts last year. I’m keeping it limited so I can stay hands-on and keep group quality high.
See you tomorrow,
-Joe