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💨 6 RBs you MUST DRAFT in fantasy football

💨 6 RBs you MUST DRAFT in fantasy football

To DESTROY 97% of your competition

Joe Holka
August 01, 2023

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Anyone remember the Tuesday Morning Quarterback column?

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

Chalk picks that will HIT big 🤙
Mid-round Roster Darlings ♥️
Slept-on Vets with Upside 😴
NFL Signing and Injury News 🏈

Nick Chubb (CLE), ADP 20.8, RB7:

Let’s kick it off with some chalk. A couple of guys who have legitimate shots to finish as RB1.

Chubb has the Cleveland backfield all to himself, unless you count Jerome Ford, who earned 8 total carries in 2 games.

As for Chubb, his metrics should be encouraging. He was RB6 in fantasy PPG last season and has been solidly in the top 10 every year since 2019. It’s been a very strong run.

He also showed athletic pop in ‘22:

4th in juke rate (40.4%)
1st in breakaway runs (23)
1st in evaded tackles (133)

Kareem Hunt had 123 carries and 44 targets for Cleveland last season. D’Ernest Johnson is also out of town.

So while Chubb ranked 15th in opportunity share, he’s probably in line for MORE work to showcase that elite movement.

Deshaun Watson returns as QB, this time with a proper offseason and no suspension. If he can be close to the guy we saw back in 2020 (QB6 in fantasy), the offense will soar.

As such, you can slot Chubb in as an RB1 without worry.

Tony Pollard (DAL), ADP 17.5, RB4:

Pollard is similar to Chubb in that he finally has a legitimate bell cow claim, and a true shot at finishing first overall.

Last season, he was highly efficient, flipping the 34th opportunity share (48.1%) into the 8th-most fantasy PPG (15.2).

With his chances projected to skyrocket, Pollard will have more of a shot to showcase his elite athletic skills:

5th in yards per touch (5.9)
2nd in yards per reception (9.5)
4th in yards per route run (1.82)
4th in breakaway run rate (8.8%)
8th in yards created per touch (3.30)

Ezekiel Elliott may have been inefficient, but he got 231 carries and actually outscored Pollard 12-9 on the ground.

Some out there are worried about Pollard’s ability to carry the load for a full season. I look at the numbers and think about the ceiling they could potentially bring.

Slot him in and enjoy the ride.

PrizePicks has Pollard listed for just 8.5 rush TDs. SMASH the OVER.

Aaron Jones (GB), ADP 46, RB18:

The naysayers will point to the diminishing red zone role for Jones as the season wore on last year.

Yes, they have a point, but if you’re playing PPR, consider Jones criminally underrated this summer.

First of all, he’s the receiver out of that backfield. He had a career-high 59 receptions (6th), on a 13.4% target share (9th).

By contrast, A.J. Dillon was a distant 43rd in route participation and 29th in target share. Not a threat.

And it isn’t as though Jones is an incompetent runner. He had 5.3 yards per carry and his career high in rush yards (1,121).

Plus, look at his athletic metrics:

14th in juke rate (29.4%)
9th in evaded tackles (80)
15th in breakaway run rate (6.6%)

As a bonus, Jones only scored 2 rushing TDs (5 receiving), so he may be in line for some positive regression.

Jordan Love is starting for the first time. That usually leads to heavy RB usage in both the run and pass games.

Ultimately, I think he will be a completely productive RB2 for your squad with the upside to finish as a lower-tier RB1.

Kenneth Walker (SEA), ADP 40.5, RB16:

Walker is currently out of practice with a groin strain, but it’s likely that won’t affect his Week 1 prospects (per Deepak Chona @SportMDAnalysis).

So, let’s see what Walker’s numbers have to say.

The volume was great in ‘22:

11th in carries (228)
3rd in red zone touches (52)
13th in opportunity share (65.3%)

That volume led to an RB16 finish in fantasy PPG (13.5).

A closer look reveals that once Rashaad Penny was injured, Walker’s output per game actually climbed all the way up to 8th.

That’s encouraging because rookie Zach Charbonnet is also dealing with an injury to his shoulder, which is becoming more of a concern according to reports.

I like Walker to gain even more of a stronghold on the Seattle backfield, with the 12th-best juke rate (31%) and the 8th-best breakaway run rate (7.5%).

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Cam Akers (LAR), ADP 63.8, RB21:

Akers got really hot at the end of the season, starting in Week 14 when the Rams started feeding him like a bell cow.

In his final 3 games:

Routes went from 5 to 15 per game
Carries went from 10.4 to 21 per game

Those Weeks went well, as he was the best fantasy RB in the league in Week 16. In fact, he was the leading rusher over the last 6 games of the year.

Darrell Henderson is no longer with the Rams, and Sony Michel abruptly retired this week, adding confidence about his volume.

He’s also on the final year of his contract, which could motivate the team to use him and Akers himself to play hard.

Despite the lack of passing game work (18 targets in ‘22), Akers is a value at this point and has the upside to produce.

James Conner (ARI), ADP 92, RB30:

Sometimes the fantasy community writes off veterans a bit early.

At RB30, I feel that’s happened with Conner.

Whatever you think of the Cardinals, they gave Conner a 71.7% opportunity share last year (8th). One look at their depth chart tells us that’s not changing any time soon.

So this pick is about potential volume: