League-Losing RBs

We did receivers yesterday. Now here are 5 RBs that will lose your league if you draft them … in two minutes or less.

Breece Hall (NYJ), ADP 36.3, RB14 

Hall ranked 5th in snap rate and had over 1,300 total yards last season. But even with elite usage, he fell to just 17th in fantasy points per game and ranked 29th in fantasy points per opportunity. So the workload isn’t the issue, efficiency is. And that problem gets WORSE in 2025. Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has said this will be a committee backfield, and training camp trends confirm it. Braelon Allen has been called “the star of camp” and is making this a legit 1A–1B split. Hall also saw a sharp drop in broken tackles in 202 (just 1 every 30 carries, 42nd among all backs). And his touchdown outlook is brutal. The Jets were DEAD LAST in plays inside the 5 the last two years, and Justin Fields’ red zone rushing only makes that worse. So now you’re drafting a volume-dependent back who’s sharing snaps, losing touchdowns, and stuck in a bottom-tier offense with a new QB. That’s not a high-level RB2. I’m staying away unless he falls multiple rounds.

James Conner (ARI), ADP 48.3, RB19

The good: Conner just posted career highs in touches and total yards. According to PlayerProfiler, he also ranked 1st in evaded tackles and juke rate. But at age 30, the Cardinals are finally forcing a split, and Conner knows it. After Arizona’s red-white scrimmage, he openly said he “can’t shy away” from being a co-RB1 duo with rookie Trey Benson. So the engine of this offense, who used to average 17+ touches per game, is no longer guaranteed goal-line or receiving work. The Cardinals face a fairly easy rushing schedule, but that only helps if he keeps the volume. And with Benson expected to “play a lot,” Conner’s floor is falling fast. Yes, he’s still efficient. He ranked 6th in explosive run rate and 7th in yards per reception. But the team already told us they want two starters. So if you draft him hoping for a 2024 repeat, you’re chasing a role that might not exist.

Josh Jacobs (GB), ADP 16.8, RB8

Jacobs had 337 touches, 1,671 yards, and 16 touchdowns last year, including a score in 8 straight games to close the season. But he ranked just 26th in true yards per carry, and the Packers face the 5th-toughest rushing schedule in the league. So while his volume was massive, the efficiency is already slipping, and his 14 rushing TDs inside the 10 are nearly impossible to repeat. This offense was 5th in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns last year, which made Jacobs look like a league-winner. But with Green Bay expected to pass more in 2025, the touchdown count will likely swing toward Love and the receivers. So if Jacobs falls back to even 10 total scores, you're left with a grinder back… being drafted as a top-10 RB. And that's how you lose value in Round 2.

James Cook (BUF), ADP 30.2, RB13

Cook finished with 18 TOTAL touchdowns and ended the year as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. But 43% of his production came from TDs alone, and he scored a league-high 7 TDs OVER expectation — the biggest outlier in football. So if his touchdowns regress even slightly… his floor craters. And there’s plenty of reason to expect that. His usage dropped from 16.5 to just 14.9 touches per game, and his snap share, route rate, and receiving volume all dipped from 2023. Meanwhile, Buffalo now draws the 5TH-TOUGHEST rushing schedule in the NFL… meaning fewer red zone trips and less margin for error. Yes, he still signed a new 4-year deal. But he only topped 20 touches FOUR times all year, and the team still treats him like a satellite back. You’re not buying Cook’s talent. You’re buying his touchdown spike — and those NEVER repeat. He’s a highlight reel waiting to regress.

Aaron Jones (MIN), ADP 65, RB25

Jones played all 17 games and racked up 306 touches last season… more than any year of his career. But after the halfway point, he faded hard, averaging just 79 total yards over his final 8 games. So now at age 30, he's coming off a clear late-season decline, and the Vikings added Jordan Mason to take on the power work and goal-line role. Jones is still efficient. He was 11th in receiving yards per game and 18th in first downs per route run. But Mason has quietly split reps with the first team all camp. Even ESPN says this will be a “genuine co-RB1” setup, with Mason stealing touchdowns and Jones locked into a FLEX role in PPR. So if you're drafting him as a safe RB2, you're getting the pass-catching half of a 50/50 backfield… And you’re praying the wheels don’t fall off before November.

There you have it. Backs who won’t do anything to lift you to a fantasy championship in 2025… As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe