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- šØ 5 players you must draft BEFORE they break out
šØ 5 players you must draft BEFORE they break out
More bustling breakouts to consider
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Today in 5 minutes or less, youāll learn:
5 picks for AFTER the 5th round š„
Stats to help you make your decisions š¤
Great sleepers at every position š¤
Fantasy-relevant NFL preseason news š°
D.J. Chark (CAR), ADP 165.3, WR69:
Iām not sure if thereās another guy projected to be his teamās first option whoās being drafted this ridiculously late.
Yes, I get that Chark has had injury issues throughout his career, but heās played well when heās out there, and if he can stay healthy, there are reasons to think heāll break out.
To start, he looks like the easy WR1 on that team working alongside Adam Thielen, who is a talent but is now in his mid-30s and losing efficiency.
Chark on the other hand, has elite speed and burst, which will help him establish himself with Bryce Young, and use that deep ball potential that heās flashed:
6th in ADOT (15.23)
10th in yards per target (9.7)
7th yards per reception (16.7)
In fact, the report on the two is that theyāve developed nice deep ball chemistry in workouts.
The Panthers have a tough strength of schedule, which will promote more trailing and more in the way of passing for Young and Chark (chart courtesy of @MBFantasylife):
To me, it all means that if you draft Chark at current ADP, you should be pleasantly surprised with the results.
Behind on NFL research and need to catch up before your draft?
3 recent newsletters your competition probably already read this weekā¦
- š Draft these 3 WRs to beat your friends
- š 7 MUST DRAFT (late) RBs
- š„ 7 BREAKOUTS you need to draft
Kenny Pickett (PIT), ADP 155.4, QB24:
If Pickett shows the type of improvement he showed over the course of the SZN as a rookie, he is a lock to break out.
He had some strengths, particularly on deep passes and passes under pressure (you know, the easy stuff):
1st in deep ball catchable rate
6th in deep ball accuracy rating
1st in pressured catchable pass rate
6th in pressured completion percent
He also has some sneaky rushing upside, as he went for 237 yards last season (12th).
But I was most impressed by the Steelersā penchant for improvement as a team last year.
The offensive line allowed 3 sacks per game from Weeks 1-9, and just 1.3 sacks per game from Week 10 on. Pickett himself got more comfortable too, throwing just 1 of his 9 picks after his first 5 starts. Smart player.
Considering how good he got at avoiding turnovers in the 2nd half last year, I think heāll come in under 11.5 on PrizePicks.
Luke Musgrave (GB), ADP 197.6, TE23:
Itās been no secret in recent days that the Packers plan to utilize their young TE in ways that may lead to a productive breakout.
Musgrave is 6ā6ā and 253 lbs., but moves like a much smaller man, which should help him find the space to work next to Christian Watson and company int he Packer offense.
While his receiving numbers have never been eye-popping, he did handle a 12.3% target share in 2021 for Oregon State.
According to FantasyPros, the Packers hold the 3rd-easiest strength of schedule for TEs, meaning if Musgrave is their guy, heāll have plenty of chances to shine for Jordan Love.
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Javonte Williams (DEN), ADP 69, RB23:
It was supposed to happen last year.
But after a long offseason recovery, Williams finally looks ready to step back onto the field and try to recapture some of the magic he showed as a rookie back in 2021:
13th in targets (53)
13th in rushes (203)
Overall RB14 (204.9 PPR points)
Remember, that was while sharing the backfield with Melvin Gordon, so this guyās talented for sure.
The Broncosā situation is admittedly murky. Russell Wilson and friends underperformed last year, but Sean Payton attributes that to poor coaching, and it sounds like he thinks he can fix it.
Itās not like the team didnāt expect Williams to perform. In his 4 games before tearing up the knee, he played over 35 snaps per game (19th), and earned 47 carries and 16 catches.
So if the recovery has been as remarkable as the media is saying, Javonte could bounce back in a big way.
J.K. Dobbins (BAL), ADP 67.2, RB20:
Obviously health is a big IF, but Dobbins can benefit from a new offensive coordinator and a revived role in the passing game, as rumors have indicated will happen.
He flashed at the end of '22, especially from Weeks 14-17, averaging 17 carries per game and topping 93 rush each time.
In Weeks 14-15 he went for over 120.
And he still has elite athleticism:
2nd in juke rate (43.5%)
3rd in breakaway run rate (10.9%)
Dobbins was tied for 2nd in yards per carry among guys with over 80 attempts in ā22 with 5.7 (per @MBFantasylife), behind Breece Hall and tied with James Cook and Khalil Herbert.
Itās nice company.
It feels like thereās a lot of untapped talent just beneath the surface thatās been tamped down by injury.
This could finally be the year all of that talent is realized.
š Purdy's Stellar Return: QB Shows Explosive Passing
ā” Sean Tucker Breaks Out: Bucs' RB is HERE
šÆ Trey Palmer's Star Rising: WR Making Case to Start
š Trask Steps Up: Bucs' QB2 Heats Up QB Competition
š„ Packers WR Reed Puts on a SHOW with TD
š Doubs' Spectacular Catch shows HUGE potential
ā” Steelers' RB Warren Makes Quick Impact
š¤ Dolphins' RB Achane Suffers Shoulder Injury
šāāļø Mostert Makes Presence Felt
It wonāt be long now. Start loading up those betting app balances for another big degenerate season!
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