šŸšØ 5 players you must draft BEFORE they break out

More bustling breakouts to consider

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Today in 5 minutes or less, youā€™ll learn:

  • 5 picks for AFTER the 5th round šŸ”„ 

  • Stats to help you make your decisions šŸ¤“ 

  • Great sleepers at every position šŸ’¤ 

  • Fantasy-relevant NFL preseason news šŸ“° 

D.J. Chark (CAR), ADP 165.3, WR69:

Iā€™m not sure if thereā€™s another guy projected to be his teamā€™s first option whoā€™s being drafted this ridiculously late.

Yes, I get that Chark has had injury issues throughout his career, but heā€™s played well when heā€™s out there, and if he can stay healthy, there are reasons to think heā€™ll break out.

To start, he looks like the easy WR1 on that team working alongside Adam Thielen, who is a talent but is now in his mid-30s and losing efficiency.

Chark on the other hand, has elite speed and burst, which will help him establish himself with Bryce Young, and use that deep ball potential that heā€™s flashed:

  • 6th in ADOT (15.23)

  • 10th in yards per target (9.7)

  • 7th yards per reception (16.7)

In fact, the report on the two is that theyā€™ve developed nice deep ball chemistry in workouts.

The Panthers have a tough strength of schedule, which will promote more trailing and more in the way of passing for Young and Chark (chart courtesy of @MBFantasylife):

To me, it all means that if you draft Chark at current ADP, you should be pleasantly surprised with the results.

Behind on NFL research and need to catch up before your draft?

3 recent newsletters your competition probably already read this weekā€¦

- šŸš€ Draft these 3 WRs to beat your friends

- šŸ‘ 7 MUST DRAFT (late) RBs

- šŸ’„ 7 BREAKOUTS you need to draft

Kenny Pickett (PIT), ADP 155.4, QB24:

If Pickett shows the type of improvement he showed over the course of the SZN as a rookie, he is a lock to break out.

He had some strengths, particularly on deep passes and passes under pressure (you know, the easy stuff):

  • 1st in deep ball catchable rate

  • 6th in deep ball accuracy rating

  • 1st in pressured catchable pass rate

  • 6th in pressured completion percent

He also has some sneaky rushing upside, as he went for 237 yards last season (12th).

But I was most impressed by the Steelersā€™ penchant for improvement as a team last year.

The offensive line allowed 3 sacks per game from Weeks 1-9, and just 1.3 sacks per game from Week 10 on. Pickett himself got more comfortable too, throwing just 1 of his 9 picks after his first 5 starts. Smart player.

Considering how good he got at avoiding turnovers in the 2nd half last year, I think heā€™ll come in under 11.5 on PrizePicks.

Luke Musgrave (GB), ADP 197.6, TE23:

Itā€™s been no secret in recent days that the Packers plan to utilize their young TE in ways that may lead to a productive breakout.

Musgrave is 6ā€™6ā€ and 253 lbs., but moves like a much smaller man, which should help him find the space to work next to Christian Watson and company int he Packer offense.

While his receiving numbers have never been eye-popping, he did handle a 12.3% target share in 2021 for Oregon State.

According to FantasyPros, the Packers hold the 3rd-easiest strength of schedule for TEs, meaning if Musgrave is their guy, heā€™ll have plenty of chances to shine for Jordan Love.

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Javonte Williams (DEN), ADP 69, RB23:

It was supposed to happen last year.

But after a long offseason recovery, Williams finally looks ready to step back onto the field and try to recapture some of the magic he showed as a rookie back in 2021:

  • 13th in targets (53)

  • 13th in rushes (203)

  • Overall RB14 (204.9 PPR points)

Remember, that was while sharing the backfield with Melvin Gordon, so this guyā€™s talented for sure.

The Broncosā€™ situation is admittedly murky. Russell Wilson and friends underperformed last year, but Sean Payton attributes that to poor coaching, and it sounds like he thinks he can fix it.

Itā€™s not like the team didnā€™t expect Williams to perform. In his 4 games before tearing up the knee, he played over 35 snaps per game (19th), and earned 47 carries and 16 catches.

So if the recovery has been as remarkable as the media is saying, Javonte could bounce back in a big way.

J.K. Dobbins (BAL), ADP 67.2, RB20:

Obviously health is a big IF, but Dobbins can benefit from a new offensive coordinator and a revived role in the passing game, as rumors have indicated will happen.

He flashed at the end of '22, especially from Weeks 14-17, averaging 17 carries per game and topping 93 rush each time.

In Weeks 14-15 he went for over 120.

And he still has elite athleticism:

  • 2nd in juke rate (43.5%)

  • 3rd in breakaway run rate (10.9%)

Dobbins was tied for 2nd in yards per carry among guys with over 80 attempts in ā€˜22 with 5.7 (per @MBFantasylife), behind Breece Hall and tied with James Cook and Khalil Herbert.

Itā€™s nice company.

It feels like thereā€™s a lot of untapped talent just beneath the surface thatā€™s been tamped down by injury.

This could finally be the year all of that talent is realized.

šŸˆ Purdy's Stellar Return: QB Shows Explosive Passing

āš” Sean Tucker Breaks Out: Bucs' RB is HERE

šŸŽÆ Trey Palmer's Star Rising: WR Making Case to Start

šŸš€ Trask Steps Up: Bucs' QB2 Heats Up QB Competition

šŸ”„ Packers WR Reed Puts on a SHOW with TD

šŸŒŸ Doubs' Spectacular Catch shows HUGE potential

āš” Steelers' RB Warren Makes Quick Impact

šŸ¤• Dolphins' RB Achane Suffers Shoulder Injury

šŸƒā€ā™‚ļø Mostert Makes Presence Felt

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