5 Fantasy Busts

Today’s players are ALL way too risky or too expensive to justify drafting at current ADP… in two minutes or less.

5. Xavier Worthy (KC), ADP 57.6, WR25

Worthy is being drafted as a low-end WR2, but he ranked 40th in fantasy points per game and 76th in yards per route run. That’s a volume illusion driven by one Super Bowl blowup and a short stint without Rashee Rice. Over his first 12 games, Worthy averaged just 32 receiving yards per game as a field stretcher, with a 13.9% target share, and that’s bottom-tier usage metrics across the board. He did see a spike late in the year, but that was a mirage. Now Rice is back (although possibly facing a suspension, stay tuned…), and Worthy reverts to a boom-bust WR3 trapped in a YAC-sharing offense. Meanwhile, Kansas City faces the NFL’s 4th-toughest passing schedule in 2025.

So drafting him in Round 5 at WR25 is betting on the outlier, not the floor. It's a trap for leaguemates chasing last year’s flash.

4. Baker Mayfield (TB), ADP 67.8, QB7

Mayfield is going as the QB7… ahead of proven dual-threats and system QBs. But he’s coming off a career-high in every category:

• 4,500 yards

• 41 Passing TDs

• 378 rushing yards

Those numbers are screaming regression. He led the NFL in passing touchdowns over expectation, and his rushing total was a clear career outlier, ranking 10th despite never cracking 200 yards in any previous season. And the bigger shift? Liam Coen, the architect of that breakout, is gone, replaced by Josh Grizzard, who already stated Tampa Bay will emphasize the ground game. Tampa’s second-half offense already leaned that way, giving Bucky Irving 111 carries to Rachaad White’s 64 down the stretch.

So you’re paying top dollar for a QB who lost his OC, is due for TD pullback, and plays in the NFL’s 3rd-toughest passing schedule. At this ADP? Let someone else reach.

3. Kyren Williams (LAR), ADP 23.8, RB11

Kyren Williams is still priced as a Top-12 RB. But he finished 47th in yards per touch, 52nd in yards created per touch, and 36th in fantasy points per opportunity… big-time red zone volume was the only thing saving him. He led the NFL in red zone touches and snap share, but those raw totals masked a drop-off in efficiency across every category compared to 2023: yards per carry, yards after contact, and receptions. And now the Rams have added Jarquez Hunter and Blake Corum in back-to-back drafts. Even if Kyren opens as the “Plan A,” there’s real backfield depth and workload risk built in.
The Rams also face the NFL’s 3rd-toughest rushing schedule, and with his contract situation unresolved, Kyren is entering 2025 in a prove-it year with no margin for error.

So if you're drafting him as a bellcow at RB11, you're ignoring the volume trap, and the signs of a committee creeping in.

2. Jonnu Smith (PIT), ADP 108.2, TE10

Jonnu Smith broke out last season with 88 catches and 8 TDs, finishing as the TE4.
But that was in Mike McDaniel’s pass-happy offense, not Arthur Smith’s run-heavy scheme. Plus the Steelers ranked dead last in passing touchdowns last year. Smith was 6th in yards per route run and 4th in YAC, but he’s never averaged more than 5.8 fantasy points per game in any other season, and this system has a history of suppressing pass-game volume. Yes, he’s being used creatively lining up at TE, fullback, and slot, but the Steelers offense is already clashing between Rodgers’ pass-first style and Smith’s old-school run calls.

So, even with flexible usage, Jonnu is TE10 in ADP with a ceiling that depends entirely on unpredictable YAC plays. He’s a fringe streamer, not a weekly starter.

Tap HERE for a Surprising WR BUST

So that’s it. 5 players I’m not drafting this year at ADP.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe

P.S. Not ready for the full kit? You can still grab my updated Top-150 rankings for free.