MORE Breakouts

When you’re in the middle/late rounds of your fantasy draft and don’t know what to do, remember these guys have an awesome shot at a breakout this year … in two minutes or less.

Evan Engram (DEN), ADP 85.3, TE8

Engram is about to detonate in Sean Payton’s offense. He ranked 3rd among tight ends in target share last year, and 5th in targets per route, even while battling shoulder and hamstring injuries. But in 2025, he lands in Denver, where Payton told reporters he’ll be the “JOKER”. That’s the exact role that turned Jimmy Graham into a cheat code. And the depth chart? Courtland Sutton is the only proven target, with the TE room wide open behind Engram. Even better: Payton has a track record of TE1 finishes from Jared Cook, Coby Fleener, and Jeremy Shockey in this same scheme. So if Engram even sniffs the top in usage again, and leads this team in catches like many expect, he’s a locked-in shot at the Top-5.

J.J. McCarthy (MIN), ADP 143.8, QB19

McCarthy is set up for the most seamless breakout of any late-round QB. Minnesota ranked 3rd in pass rate over expectation last season, and even Sam Darnold finished as QB9 in this system. But McCarthy brings WAY more juice. He ranked Top-12 in the FBS in passing grade, YPA, and downfield accuracy. And after rehabbing from a torn meniscus, he now inherits Jefferson, Hockenson, and a QB whisperer in Kevin O’Connell, who’s led Top-8 QB production every year, with four different QBs. And behind the scenes, McCarthy’s been prepped with virtual reality QB training, film study of Darnold’s reps, and handwritten script installs from McCown himself. So even though he's never started a regular-season NFL game, McCarthy’s already living in the playbook. And if that system turns even backups into fantasy starters? Then this isn’t a dart throw, it’s your QB2 with real Top-12 upside.

Tyler Warren (IND), ADP 103.8, TE10

Warren isn’t just an interesting prospect, he’s being force-fed the football in Colts practices. The 14th overall pick won the Mackey Award and ranked Top-3 among TEs in YAC, broken tackles, and receiving grade last year. But Indy has a WR room featuring elite target earners in Pittman and Josh Downs. That makes usage a question, but it also means Warren is getting schemed into space, over the middle, and out of mismatches. ESPN said it was “IMPOSSIBLE” not to notice how often he touched the ball in camp. And behind the numbers? Indy ranked 3rd-lowest in red zone pass rate last year. They key is that Daniel Jones will be the starter, so those short-area targets go UP fast. So Warren is already being treated like a featured piece, and if he delivers even 80% of his YAC and mismatch skillset? This is the cheapest TE1 upside in the draft.

Isiah Pacheco (KC), APD 65.3, RB25

Pacheco looked like a FLEX trap down the stretch last year, but he was coming off a fractured fibula, rib injury, and ligament damage. He also never cleared 46% of snaps the rest of the season. Before that though, he opened 2024 with an 80% snap share and 17 touches, putting up 78 total yards in Week 1 before the injury hit. Now, Andy Reid says he “looks tremendous” and beat writers say his route running has visibly improved. That’s a huge signal he might stay on the field for passing downs. But the backfield is crowded again. Kareem Hunt is back, Elijah Mitchell is here, and Brashard Smith could siphon 3rd-down looks. So this is not a floor play. But if Pacheco reclaims anything close to his early-season workload, and possibly adds 2-3 targets per game, you’re getting a high-variance RB2 with legitimate RB1 spike weeks baked in.

Ricky Pearsall (SF), ADP 98, WR43

Pearsall is the only WR being drafted outside the Top 40 who just dropped 18.4 points per game to close the season, and plays in the NFL’s easiest passing schedule for 2025. Don’t forget, he was shot in the chest before his rookie year, missed six games, then finally got healthy and delivered back-to-back blowup weeks with 17 catches, 210 yards, and 2 TDs. But the breakout wasn’t just luck, either. He posted a 21.7% target share, 30% first-read rate, and 2.84 yards per route run in that stretch. Now, with Deebo Samuel gone, Aiyuk is recovering from ACL and MCL tears, and Jauan Jennings huring his calf, he’s the healthiest guy out there. And if this usage holds through camp… He’s not just a sleeper. He’s a breakout WR2 hiding in plain sight.

So keep these guys in mind for your draft. I’ll be back tomorrow with 5 more.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe