👎 4 Running Backs to AVOID in 2022

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1. David Montgomery (CHI), ADP 52.1, RB20:

Montgomery's value is volume-based.

80% opportunity share was 4th in ‘21.

Despite that, he was just PPR RB19.

Why? Inefficiency.

True yards per carry were only 3.7 (61st).

Volume is everything in fantasy football so inefficiency normally isn't a huge deal.

Problem is, the same volume may not be there again in 2022.

Second-year back Khalil Herbert seems ready for a leap.

He scored 13.45 PPR points per game when Montgomery wasn't available.

Herbert is also superior in:

• Juke rate (28.2%, 15th)

• True yards per carry (4.1)

• Breakaway Run rate (3.9%)

Don't forget a new coaching staff adds uncertainty to the usage...

And Montgomery is in the final year of his rookie contract. Fading this ADP.

2. A.J. Dillon (GB), ADP 73.3, RB25:

Aaron Jones is Green Bay's workhorse.

Dillon? Not so much.

He was 41st in opportunity share (45.1%).

If you like consistency, watch out!

The metrics don’t paint a better picture:

• 30th in juke rate at (25.3%)

• 32nd in true yards per carry (4.2)

• 43rd in breakaway run rate (2.7%)

ADP is just too high, even in GB's offense.

Look elsewhere for that depth.

In fact...

PrizePicks has Dillon's over/under at 875.5 yards rushing and 7.5 rush TDs.

I like the under.

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3. Alexander Mattison (MIN), ADP 124, RB39:

There will be a point when Cook has to miss time and Mattison starts trending.

If/when that happens, volume will follow.

Problem is...

Cook was 5th in opportunity share in ‘21, Mattison has very little standalone value.

From an efficiency standpoint, also meh:

• 19.9% juke rate (42nd)

• 3.5 true yards per carry (68th)

• 0.71 fantasy points per opportunity (53rd)

Pass on one of the more expensive handcuffs in the NFL at this ADP.

4. Tyrion Davis-Price (SF), ADP 161.2, RB50:

No, you won’t have to pay a high price for him (see what I did there?),

But the college numbers are concerning in a few areas. Consider:

The combine exposed mediocre speed.

His 4.48 40-yard dash was just 82nd.

His high jump numbers also point to a lack of explosiveness.

The actual football metrics also seem pedestrian:

• Just 2.8 yards after contact

• Ranked 29th in broken tackle rate

• Best comparable pro: Wayne Gallman

And the 49ers face the 3rd hardest strength of schedule for running backs.

Go for it if you need late-round depth,

Or even a post-draft add.

But until he shows something in the pros, I'm leaving him on the board.

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