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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• 3 WRs who could finish no. 1 👀

• The big payoff of Ridley’s return 📈

• Up-to-date NFL OTA news and notes 📆

• The latest injuries and recoveries 🤕

3 WRs (available after your first two picks) that will challenge Kupp/Jefferson for WR1:

Jaylen Waddle (MIA), 16.4, WR 11:

I’ve written a lot of hype around Tua Tagovailoa lately without worrying too much about his head health.

Call it wishful thinking.

I still think about those explosive performances from early last season. It was a glimpse into the sky-high potential of Tua and his weapons.

Jaylen Waddle is pulling for a healthy Tua too. When they’re on the field together, Waddle is a WR1 candidate. Check out the splits (credit @TommygarrettPFN).

Waddle with Tua (per game):

• 7.4 targets

• 4.7 receptions

• 89.7 yards

• 17.95 PPR points

Waddle without Tua (per game):

• 5.4 targets

• 3.8 receptions

• 55.8 yards

• 9.56 PPR points

All 8 of his TDs came with Tua on the field too.

But is he really a candidate for top wideout? Yes, with caveats.

Tyreek Hill is a target vacuum, with his 31.6% target share (2nd), 39.8% air yards share (4th), and 36 deep targets (1st).

When Tua played, he could support the production of both guys, but when he was out, Waddle took the target back seat.

Still, there are some numbers that boost his case immensely:

• 1st in yards per target (11.7)

• 10th in route win rate (49.2%)

• 1st in yards per reception (18.1)

• 4th in yards per route run (2.81)

Aside from Hill, there’s not much else target competition in South Beach. The RBs don’t exactly scare anyone in this category.

And even when Mike Gesicki was in town, he only garnered a 9.7% target share. Maybe Miami will utilize their TEs more, but I doubt it.

Pending Tua’s health, a little TD luck, and a possible regression from Hill at age 29, Waddle is a prime candidate to excel.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), ADP 14, WR10:

The Sun God was a steal last year in fantasy drafts. The savvy among us (ahem) got a great deal on some big production.

Amon-Ra’s 146 targets were 8th-most in ‘22, and would rank 9th in the target totals of the last 10 fantasy WR1s.

But consider, he missed Week 4 with an injury and had just 1 target vs. Dallas in Week 7.

We can never really assume a full bill of health or game flow, but if we extrapolate those games with the averages, he’d be well over 160 targets.

Amon-Ra’s metrics also put him in elite territory:

• 7th in juke rate (11.3%)

• 2nd in route win rate (52.8%)

• 9th in yards per route run (2.57)

• 10th in fantasy points per game (16.7)

The ability to get open, the 93% catch rate, and the passing volume all at least put St. Brown in the conversation for top WR.

But what about the QB?

Jared Goff’s reputation is not quite square with his production.

Yes, he was a lot worse away from home than he was in Detroit, but overall, Goff has the ability to support a number 1 guy.

He had the 6th-most pass attempts over the course of the season (587), the 4th-best accuracy rating (8.0), the 7th-best deep ball completion percentage (44.4%), and the 10th-best accuracy rating under pressure (6.1).

Yes, Jameson Williams is in line for some targets along with itght end T.J. Hockenson and rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs.

But Amon-Ra is still the first option in Detroit, and if things break right, he could smash that WR10 tag.

In fact, I really like the OVER on his season-long PrizePicks prop line.

Check it out below:

Calvin Ridley (JAX), ADP 31.7, WR16:

It isn’t ideal to miss an entire season. We’ve seen guys with trouble shaking off the rust.

However, Ridley is still just 28 and was elite the last time we saw him.

In a shortened 2021 season, Ridley was:

• 7th in target share (27.4%)

• 5th in route win rate (51%)

• 4th in air yards share (40.0%)

Going back to Ridley’s last full season in 2020 shows the real story of his talent and upside:

• 1st in air yards (2,063)

• 1st in deep targets (40)

• 2nd in red zone targets (22)

• 2nd in air yards share (41.4%)

That year, Ridley was 4th in total yards but led the league in unrealized air yards with a whopping 968!

I don’t think anyone is going to argue that 2023 Trevor Lawrence can’t outperform 2020-21 Matt Ryan.

Anyone? No? Good.

Jacksonville was 9th in the league in ‘22 in pass attempts per game with 35.9.

The ceiling for Ridley will depend on how those targets are ultimately distributed.

Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are still in Duval, and they combined for 166 targets last year.

Don’t forget Evan Engram (98).

The possibility of a logjam is definitely in play.

But so is the possibility that Ridley arrives and immediately upsets the apple cart.

It will be a fun team to watch.

🏈 Rookie RB Zach Charbonnet Poised for Fantasy Stardom

💯 Justin Fields: The Unleashed Dual-Threat QB Bears Fans Dream About!

✈ DeAndre Hopkins' Next Destination? Patriots or Cleveland?

🔀 Hunter Renfrow Trade Talks Heating Up! Will He Stay or Will He Go?

🦵 Baron Browning's Training Camp Setback: Broncos' Woes Continue!

🔥 Frank Clark Joins Broncos' Defense, Ready to Bring the Heat!

😳 Packers' Rashan Gary Eyes Week 1 Return: Bears Beware!

🥈 Offensive Overhaul: RB Screens to Boost Gibson and Robinson!

🚑 Joseph Noteboom's Achilles Journey: Will He Be Ready for Rams' Camp?

👐 Puka Nacua's Rapid Rise: Rams' Rookie Receiver Shines in Practice!

That’s it for today!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

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