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1. A.J Brown (PHI), ADP 26.1, WR11:
Yes, PHI had the lowest pass rate in '21.
But I think Brown could help change that.
His efficiency is elite...
He grinded out 13.9 PPG on a team 25th in pass yards per game.
Per PlayerProfiler, he did it by being:
• 15th in route win rate (45.4%)
• 7th in yards per route run (2.72)
• 7th in fantasy points per route run (.57)
He and Hurts will benefit each other.
Hurts was more efficient than Tannehill in:
• Money Throws (7th vs. 21st)
• Points per drop back (1st vs. 15th)
• Air yards per attempt (3rd vs. 25th)
• Deep Ball completion % (17th vs. 30th)
The WR1 overall scenario is real.
We'll see if Philly can unlock his potential.
2. Michael Pittman (IND), ADP 28, WR12:
The Indy staff obviously believes in him.
Crazy route participation (3rd, 98.1%) led to his first 1,000-yard season.
He also flashed lots of skill. Consider...
He was 4th in route win rate (51.3%),
19th in yards per route run (2.12),
And 21st in juke rate (13.6%).
There's no obvious receiver on the Colts to compete for targets,
And Matty Ice will elevate him...
From '13-'19, Julio Jones was no worse than WR10 in PPG.
In '20, Calvin Ridley was WR4 (FantasyPros).
Defenses will pay lots of mind to JT in '22.
It could spell a huge year for Pittman.
After posting 88-1082-6 last year,
I actually think he could surpass them all with Ryan at the helm.
3. Courtland Sutton (DEN), ADP 33.5, WR16:
Notice a trend here?
Improved QB + less target competition =
Big Time Potential.
Tim Patrick's injury is unfortunate...
But it could open the door for Sutton.
Per PlayerProfiler:
• 2nd in ADOT (15.7)
• 8th in air yards (1534)
• 6th in deep targets (29)
We know Russ can get him the ball deep.
Sure, there's already been a lot of knee-jerk reactions to training camp footage.
However...
Sutton is one of the best vertical WRs in the NFL.
A Top-3 WR year is within his range of outcomes, and that's what we want.
To be early and take advantage of top-1% outcomes.
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-Joe
