🔥 3 simple ways to DOMINATE on DraftKings

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If you read one sentence in this thread, make it this one 👇

Never build your DFS lineups through straight median projections only.

These only contribute to overconfidence and downplay the inevitable randomness.

Here are 3 better stats to help you build successful tournament (GPP) lineups:

1. Range of outcome projections.

A friend once described it to me like this:

Two players carry a median projection of roughly ≈20 points.

Who's the better play?

Well... It depends.

(A) player who will score between 15 and 25 points.

or

(B) player who will score between 5 and 35 points.

so

Each player's volatility should drive most decisions in lineup construction.

NOT that a player's median projection is > by 0.3 pts.

Accurate single-number (median) projections are a necessary starting point.

Of course.

But they should never be treated as the ultimate destination.

Context matters.

To take this one step further...

One of the single-most important factors in today's DFS meta can be boiled down to one assessment:

"What is the range of outcomes for my entire lineup?"

The combination is what matters + it's late-swap flexibility, in my opinion.

2. Ownership projections.

Sure, nearly everyone knows how important they are by now.

They should still drive a ton of your roster construction (and late-swap) decisions.

Finding high-quality ownership can help you get to #3 more quickly & effectively.

3. Leverage Score/Rating

A ceiling/ownership combination metric can be found on most websites.

Find one.

Why?

In simple terms:

You are looking for a metric that adjusts for the effect of ownership on the higher end of a player's range of outcomes.

Don't treat this number as the "answers to the test" but...

It will be especially valuable for late-swap decisions.

One thing we didn't discuss on those threads:

Pivoting to low ownership is great, but you still need a ceiling to make up ground on your opponents.

The minuscule difference between Stefon Diggs and Ja'Marr Chase's 95th percentile outcome alone isn't that important.

It's a coin flip.

BUT:

Once you arrive at players (or positions) with comparable volatility...

You need to be able to quickly and easily sort by a leverage score metric.

Both in lineup construction and de-construction.

Whether you realize it or not...

When you do this:

• Go to your projections of choice

• Slot a player into your lineup

• because he's projected for 0.3 points

• Without any added context.

You're setting yourself up to fail in the long run.

Tl;dr

1. Range of outcome projections

2. Ownership projections

3. Leverage Score/Rating

Focus less on the single (median) number, and more on better places that number can take you.

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-Joe