👮‍♂️ 3 Running Back STEALS

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1. Tony Pollard (DAL), ADP 81.3, RB27:

Zeke is still a fantasy darling (at cost), but I see signs of a Pollard takeover.

Elliott saw declining returns in '21.

He had career lows in yards per game, and his worst-ever catch rate (@sloanpiva at the Sporting News).

Pollard looks more athletic right now:

Pollard bested Zeke in these areas (per Player Profiler):

• 34.9% juke rate (5th)

• 5.1 yards per carry (5th)

• 6.2 yards per touch (2nd)

• 8.5% breakaway rate (3rd)

Receiving game numbers looked great too:

• 84.8% catch rate (3rd)

• 2.5 yards per route run (1st)

• 8.6 yards per reception (10th)

The Cowboys also boast the 6th easiest RB strength of schedule (FantasyPros).

What am I missing here?

Pollard is the better value/risk by a mile.

You can correlate a nice bet here depending on which side you are on.

PrizePicks lists Zeke at 875.5 rush yards and Pollard at 690.5.

I'm on the Zeke UNDER & Pollard OVER.

2. Tyler Allgeier (ATL), ADP 146.3, RB47:

The young guy did pretty well his last two seasons at BYU.

His PFF rushing grade ranked 3rd, he was 2nd in TDs, and 1st in yards after contact

(FantasyPros- @AndrewErickson_ ).

In 2021 alone:

• 5.8 yards per rush

• 23 touchdowns

• 28 catches

New situation is especially encouraging:

Cordarelle Patterson is 31 and already has a strange hybrid role.

He also faded hard down the stretch.

Over the final 4 games he averaged fewer than 8 carries and failed to top 8.3 points.

It all adds up to a role for Allgeier - at a great draft price!

3. Gus Edwards (BAL), ADP 157.5, RB49:

Why is Edwards so slept on compared to his teammate J.K. Dobbins (RB21)?

I admit Dobbins has the higher upside.

But looking at the 2020 numbers, I wonder how much higher it really is...

Opportunity share wasn't much different:

40.3% vs. 38.1%

Nor were the total rushing outputs:

805 yards vs. 723 yards

Yes, Dobbins had a terrific 6.1 yards per touch, but Edwards had 5.6 (12th).

And Dobbins had just 1 more red zone touch than Edwards (per PlayerProfiler).

Both guys will play for Baltimore if healthy, and both guys are already capped by Lamar Jackson's mobility.

If you want a piece of this backfield, take the value and the low risk.

Draft Edwards.

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-Joe