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- 👌3 Games to STACK on DraftKings if you wanna CRUSH the competition in Week 3
👌3 Games to STACK on DraftKings if you wanna CRUSH the competition in Week 3
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Back at it again with @LordReebs, breaking down the games of the week.
Here's what we found...
And why it matters for you in DFS 👇
Bengals at Jets (+6):
Yeah, we're leading with a Jets game.
So what?
This game has more value than you think.
Everyone seems sour on the Bengals.
Teams are defending them differently.
They've faced cover 2 on over 40% of passing plays. Last year?
It was 13%!
Those big plays have been taken away.
But looking at the Jets…
They have only played cover 2 on 1.7% of opponents' passing plays. Hmm.
Also, the Jets brand of football is not good.
So if we want to catch Burrow, Chase, or Higgins, we can mix 'em in.
Speaking of Mix-'em...
(see what I did there?)
Joe Mixon ($7,600) has a good matchup.
The Jets allowed league-high TDs to RBs in '21.
And we saw Chubb score 3 last week.
Sure, Mixon has been bottled up so far.
He's averaging just 1.04 YPC before contact, and 3 YPC overall.
But we know the ceiling is there, and his backfield share is huge.
+ He's being used in the receiving game.
Is this the week his talent pops?
RunTheSims pegs Mixon as the 5th-highest optimal rate this week.
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On the NYJ side, Breece Hall ($5,300) has seen frustrating usage so far.
Michael Carter ($5,200) has seen the most work, and is the better value this week in DFS
Plus, Ty Johnson is in there now.
And he's taking third downs away.
The Jets offer some decent value in the passing game, as well.
They've thrown the most in the NFL so far (74.66%)
We all saw the Garrett Wilson breakout.
But someone else is on the field for over 90% of the team's drop backs.
Who, you ask?
Elijah Moore ($5,000) of course!
The Jets will have to throw.
Moore will be out there.
Want yet another cheap Jets play?
Tyler Conklin ($3,800) has had 7 and 9 targets over the first two games.
And TEs are doing work against Cincy.
If you punt at the position, Conklin can create a unique stack.
He's part of the sneaky Jets value.
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Lions at Vikings (-6):
I'll be at this game live, and I'm looking forward to a shootout!
Never been so excited about a Lions game.
We've said it before, but keep targeting this defense. Why though?
Well, NFL scoring is slightly down.
Teams are playing more over-the-top defenses to prevent big plays.
Blitz rate is down, man coverage rate too.
Except in the Motor City!
The Lions continue to play man,
continue to aggressively blitz,
and continue to give up chunk plays.
We got Prime Time Cousins last week.
But this is a good bounce back spot.
He'll be a popular play.
And if he sees lots of man, Justin Jefferson ($9,300) could go nuts.
Dalvin Cook ($7,900) is also in line for a huge bounceback performance.
Usage fell hard in Week 2:
His 10 touches were a career low...
36 yards was 4th-lowest of his career.
It won't happen again this week.
Now that people are paying for high-end WRs, we can sort of look back at the RBs.
Sure, this was early in the week, but...
Cooks's proj. for sub-10% ownership.
Detroit's let up over 60 PPR points to RBs.
Cook's 16.5 receiving yards on PrizePicks seems like the biggest locks on the slate.
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Let's maybe show a little love for Irv Smith ($3,100).
He dropped a TD, but looked a bit more comfortable in Week 2.
However, if Minnesota gets ahead and into a running script,
Then Johnny Mundt ($2,500) will be in.
Reebs deserves a victory lap!
The Sun God has finally reached $7K!
It's still a ridiculously good price.
Here's why:
You're essentially getting Cooper Kupp production.
He's had:
• A a 58 yard run
• A 30% target share
• A TD in 6 straight games
If he catches 8 balls in Week 3, it will be the new record for consecutive games!
A great football player for $2K less than Kupp.
Let's not forget D'Andre Swift ($7,200).
He's the same price as Amon-Ra, which people may prefer, but
Swift is a big play in a bottle.
He's got a ridiculous 10.5 yards per touch.
But he was limited with that ankle injury on Thursday. Keep an eye out.
These Lions might even be historic…
They scored over 30 in the first two games for the first time since 1970!
Even Jared Goff ($5,800) has some appeal.
He's a cheaper 300-yard, 3-TD candidate.
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Chiefs at Colts (+5.5):
Interesting game for stacks.
We have HUGE names at 3 positions with Mahomes, Kelce, and Taylor.
If it comes together, it could be the premium options we need.
So what do we do?
We're throwing out whatever that was with Indy last week.
They were missing guys, and Frank Reich is actually 5-10-1 in September.
But the punch will be back for the Colts…
Michael Pittman ($6,900) practiced this week, and had 13 targets in Week 1.
The rest of the Colts had 14.
"He'll be a binky for Matty Ice."
- nice one Reebs
Oh yeah, there's also the question of the $9,000 RB…
Is JT safe to play this week?
If you want to go against the grain, people are paying for the big WRs.
You can't pair Taylor with one of them.
It's too expensive.
And last week was an anomaly:
It was his fewest touches since Week 10 of his rookie season.
Those will return.
He's also involved in the passing game.
Nyheim Hines is playing fine, but he isn't automatically coming in on third downs.
It's another reason to trust JT.
Let's round it out with the Chiefs.
No one knows what to do with them.
Patrick Mahomes ($7,900) hasn't been a popular play.
But now he gets a Gus Bradley defense…
Mahomes averages 23 fantasy points against Bradley's defenses.
Ouch.
Indy is also 31st in completion rate against.
Patrick is set up nicely.
This game marks an inflection point for JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,500).
He looked good Week 1, but then got erased in Week 2.
(Perhaps that was the Chargers D vs. the slot? We'll see...)
JuJu hasn't answered our main question:
Was it him or the system in Pittsburgh?
Travis Kelce ($7,900) might be safest pick of the game.
He'll smash if he sees zone coverage.
TEs vs. Indy have caught 12 of 14 targets.
With 2 TDs.
If others pay for big WRs, and you can afford him, it just might work out.
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