👍The 21 Best DFS Picks Week 5

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Harsh truth:

Winning on DraftKings can be tough…

But we did 75% of the work for you.

19 of the “Top DFS Picks” in Week 6:

I'm lucky enough to chat with @allinkid (http://theathletic.com) each week on my show.

He helps us identify the players you will regret not having SOME EXPOSURE to.

Guys that you want in your DFS lineups.

Here's what I learned about Week 6…

QB: Kyler Murray ($7,300 on DraftKings):

It's tough to pay up for guys like Josh Allen this week.

It handicaps your lineup.

That makes QB position interesting, especially in this game.

Why?

Seattle's D is 4th worst in EPA for rush and pass defense.

Murray does both.

But if you want to pay down further, you can stay in this game.

That opens the door for…

QB: Geno Smith ($5,700):

Both defenses are poor, which will help keep that pace up.

People are still stuck on thinking the Seahawks' offense is bad.

But Geno has been better than expected.

We'll make our way back to this game later.

RB: Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000):

It's StevenSZN baby!

• Damien Harris is out.

• Ty Montgomery isn't ready to practice.

Who else will even be active for the Pats?

And think of that Cleveland Defense…

The Browns are worst in adjusted points allowed to RBs.

They put 7 in the box at an absurd rate, and still give up 2.4 YPC before contact.

That's 2nd worst in the league, folks.

Should be a bell cow week for Rhamondre.

Our tools partner (@RunTheSims) seems to be on board.

In 20.9% of optimal lineups, Rhamondre is the highest rated player for Week 6.

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RB: Eno Benjamin ($4,600):

This is our pay down play this week.

James Conner is out, so we'll see Eno at 20% plus ownership.

So what can we expect?

Well, Arizona will activate SOMEONE.

But there's no known commodity to complement Eno this week.

Consider him like a Chase Edmonds type from last season.

He could see close to 20 touches.

Against the magic of Seattle's D, we'll take the free square here.

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RB: Saquon Barkley ($7,700):

Okay, fine. I'll take an L here.

The Giants have been better than I expected.

And Saquon looks great (YLTSI).

After another 6 targets in London last week, he should be more expensive.

Maybe even up around $9,000.

Jake has given us permission to play him.

This next guy isn't on the main slate...

But you should be pairing him with the rest of your favorite PrizePicks

Our favorite PrizePicks play is Ezekiel Elliot at LESS THAN 53.5 rush yards.

Only one back has more than 9 carries vs. Philadelphia.

That would be Antonio Gibson, who racked up 38 yards on 12 carries.

That's the most vs. Philly since Week 1.

He's only hit that mark twice.

And he may not get 10 carries this week.

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Not convinced?

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Let's head back to ARI-SEA.

WR: Marquise Brown ($7,200):

And his opponent

WR: Tyler Lockett ($5,600):

Super similar profiles. How?

26 WRs have run at least 90% routes.

Both guys are on that list.

Brown is:

• 11th in team target share (26.6%)

• 5th in team air yard share (39.5%)

Until DeAndre Hopkins is back (maybe in 2 games),

SMASH in Hollywood this week.

Lockett is right there...

• 12th in team target share (26%)

• 6th in team air yard share (39.4%)

He's higher in both than DK Metcalf,

but way cheaper.

Another similarity is:

Both guys carry a top-12 of WOPR.

Weighted opportunity rating (mix of air yards and target share).

Those numbers are up there with guys like Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs.

Speaking of Buffalo…

WR: Isaiah McKenzie ($5,000):

The one caveat here is the possibility of a Wally Pipp-ing by Khalil Shakir.

But the Chiefs are surprisingly bad vs. slot WRs.

They're second-worst in EPA vs. the slot.

Even with Hunter Renfrow's poor game.

Mckenzie gets volume and maybe a TD?

TE: Zach Ertz ($4,900):

This game again? Yup.

Seattle has the highest adjusted points allowed vs. TEs.

They allow 23 fantasy points per game!

And close to 35% of drives against them end in TDs. Absurd.

At the same price point as Tyler Higbee, Ertz is a nice pivot.

TE: Hayden Hurst (3,300)

Potential payoff on the pay down.

Getting lots of RZ and end zone targets.

Problem is consistency.

He's up and down.

Could get you 2... or could get you 20.

DEF: Jaguars ($3,000):

Two words: Matt Ryan.

That's it. That's the tweet.

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Knowing the "best plays" is only half the battle of winning on DraftKings.

Thankfully, I sat down with @JMToWin (@oneweekseason) yesterday.

We know Bills vs. Chiefs is THE big one, but let's focus on some pivots.

Here's the direction we want to go in tournaments this week:

QB: Lamar Jackson ($8,100):

Yet another opportunity to get him at a lower ownership.

The NYG has faced bad offenses so far.

All of them rank between 22nd-27th in points per game.

While Lamar could feast...

It's not unreasonable to think the Giants could push the score too.

If not, we've seen Baltimore keep scoring in noncompetitive games too.

Lamar has that "have to have it" ceiling in him we are looking for in tournaments.

While we're on the Ravens…

TE: Mark Andrews ($7,000):

People paying up will likely go Kelce this week.

Those paying down will live with Tyler Higbee or Zach Ertz.

Andrews might be in that sweet spot of high upside and low ownership.

If the Ravens could break the slate...

Would anyone be surprised?

QB: Kenny Pickett (5,200):

The pay-down option no one will have.

But the Steelers know they can't run.

And Tampa is good vs. the run anyway.

Pickett should have the volume this week, and he has the upside.

He did put up yards and stats vs. Buffalo.

What else?

His weapons are explosive.

Remember, we're looking for those No.1 finishes. We're chasing upside.

Pickett can flip the build and save money.

Big games are coming.

We want to catch them early, before others jump in.

RB: Saquon Barkley ($7,700):

Again, these Baltimore games could pop.

Saquon is so central to the NYG offense.

If it stays close, he'll be the reason.

Saquon is a great bring-back if you can make it work on Lamar/Andrews stacks.

RB: Kenneth Walker ($5,400):

He's sort of in the same class as Rhamondre Stevenson.

In Seattle, you can't always count on guys to get a full work load.

BUT…

He could score from anywhere on the field.

ARI is a good matchup.

He's a sharp play, considering the ceiling.

WR: Ja'Marr Chase ($7,700):

Prime spot for Chase this week.

And it's like no one even cares.

People won't look at him as much because they'll overrate the matchup.

Especially if Marshon Lattimore plays.

We hope he does. Why?

The Bengals have seen a lot of cover 2, and thus taking the underneath stuff.

An active Lattimore will increase man coverage vs. Chase.

Burrow will take some shots there.

Chase can also break those coverages and tackles on short throws.

Ceiling feels right in Week 6.

WR: George Pickens ($4,600):

Back to Pittsburgh. This price is a joke!

Pickens is 2nd in air yards per target and average depth per target.

He's gonna get 7-8 deep balls.

And Pickett looks at him as first read.

The price doesn't match up.

We think his price will creep closer to $7,000 this season.

Get him early, and catch that big game at low ownership in Week 6.

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