❗The 21 Best DFS Picks Week 5

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I spoke with @allinkid about the players you need to lock in your DFS rosters this week.

Players you have to have some exposure to. 

Let's get on with it: 

QB: Jalen Hurts ($8,100 on DraftKings):

Hurts is a guy we can go all-in on. 

It feels like he comes up every week, and why not?

If you're paying up for a QB in that elite range (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen), 

there's no reason not to target him.

Especially against Arizona.

This will be a popular game:

It's in the late slot, so it provides that nice late-swap flexibility we like.

And Arizona just might be able to keep up.

They do a lot of damage late in games.

Points are points though, right?

Hurts can be played solo, but…

The double stack is in play:

Dallas Goedert ($4,700), or A.J. Brown ($7,500) could potentially pay off,

but our pick is DeVonta Smith ($6,000).

Don't want to pay up at QB?

QB: Trevor Lawrence ($5,600 on DraftKings):

He's finally starting to emerge. He has 2+ TDs in 3 straight games. 

EVEN in the slop against Philly last week.

He will be a popular pay-down vs Houston.

Sticking with this game for the next guy.

RB: James Robinson ($6,300 on DraftKings):

I admit it. 

I didn't think Robinson would get the work.

He has, so he makes a lot of sense now.

Why? MATCHUP.

Houston allows over 5 YPC to RBs.

Khalil Herbert averaged 7.9 in that monster game. Wow. 

They allow the 2nd-highest run pace. 

Dameon Pierce ($6,200) may draw the ownership on the other side, 

making Robinson a nice pivot.  

We think he could finish top-5.

Stacking Jags?

WR: Christian Kirk ($6,600 on DraftKings):

Lawrence, Robinson, Kirk. 

We're comfortable stacking them all.

(Maybe not really, but it would be an interesting leverage play)

RB: Austin Ekeler ($7,800 on DraftKings):

For the role he has, and this matchup vs. Cleveland, he's way too cheap. 

CLE gives up the 3rd-highest APA to RBs.

Consider what Atlanta did last week:

Between them, Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley went for 20-140-1

Cordarrelle Patterson was doing fine until he got hurt too. 

Volume and opportunity are there again.

Some honorable mentions…

My guy Leonard Fournette ($6,900), and Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,500) are viable.

If you want to pay down, that is.

How about WRs?

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WR: Chris Godwin ($5,900 on DraftKings):

LOOK AT THE PRICE

Godwin is back, and Atlanta is 6th in APA to WRs.

Godwin and Evans are always top-15. 

It's just a matter of which one rises higher.

WR: Terry McLaurin ($6,200 on DraftKings):

Washington has the 4th-highest pass percentage, but more importantly...

Josh Doctson is out. He had 4 end zone targets to Terry's 2. 

No other Commander has an end zone catch.

Terry will get the looks.

TE: Tyler Higbee ($4,300 on DraftKings):

Allen Robinson has been.... disappointing. 

So Higbee is the 2nd receiver.

His 25.5% target share is up there with the likes of Jaylen Waddle and Stefon Diggs.

He's like the '22 Dalton Schultz.

RunTheSims pegs Higbee as the top optimal TE if this slate was simulated 10,000 times.

Do you agree?

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TE: Tyler Conklin ($3,700 on DraftKings):

We thought maybe Zach Wilson wouldn't throw to him, but he still has.

He's a decent pay-down play. 

And Miami's soft spot on defense is to TEs.

Speaking of defense…

Defense: Cowboys ($2,500 on DraftKings):

They're playing Stafford, who can't get out of the pocket and is taking sacks. 

Plug 'em and play.

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@TJHernandez and I spoke about the lesser-owned guys to keep in mind for tournaments.

Here are the GPP Plays of the Week:

Last week we had some games with real chalk to them.

Not so much this week, outside of QB.

We have options.

Let's start with the QB position…

QB: Jalen Hurts ($8,100 on DraftKings): 

People will see the price, and just play Josh Allen. 

Actual results could go either way. 

They're the 2 elite QBs on Sunday's slate

Both have rushing upside. 

So, where's the advantage?

Allen's ownership may be up around 25%.

Which will boost Hurts's upside.

And then there's the opponent factor. Over the last 5 years:

When a QB gets 35 or more DK points, the opponent averages 30. 

When a QB hits 40, that average goes to 33.

Conclusion?

QBs can definitely push each other.

The Steelers won't push the Bills. They're 14-point dogs. Not enough firepower.

Arizona may have the juice to push Hurts.

Philly's corners are banged up, for one.

What else?

The game is in a dome,

The Cardinals are 21st in fantasy points allowed to QBs. 

Some of the pieces here seem overpriced,

but under the hood, this game has appeal.

RB: Alvin Kamara ($6,600 on DraftKings): 

We all have our concerns about him,

but the price is kinda nice this week. 

Good matchup, low ownership.

It's a small sample, but Kamara has over 70% of backfield touches when he plays. 

That's rare company.

Only Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Najee Harris match that. 

We like Alvin's 5.5 targets per game too.

Jameis Winston probably won't play, so NO will have Andy Dalton again.

His avg. target depth is usually low (last week notwithstanding). 

So, the dump-off to Alvin makes sense.

Saints are favored by 5.5

Seattle is 28th in adjusted fantasy points to RBs. 

And the price points will nudge people toward Leonard Fournette instead.

Good week to see Kamara back.

WR: Gabe Davis ($6,400 on DraftKings):

BUF-PIT is a game people like, but where are the pieces?

Stefon Diggs over 20% owned in Week 4. 

People will stick with him.

But Davis plays over 90% of the snaps. 

That should continue to be the case.

One perceived wildcard is Isaiah McKenzie, who may not play.

We don't think it will affect the snap count.

In fact, if he's out, Davis is a better option.

Because then Khalil Shakir will get a ton of play.

What about Dawson Knox?,

Well...

He's only running routes on 63% of Bills drop backs, so we like Davis more.

Christian Kirk and Mike Evans will be more popular in this price range. 

So Gabe makes sense for our purposes.

We even like him on PrizePicks this week. 

MORE THAN 10 fantasy points is a lock.

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TE: Dallas Goedert ($4,700 on DraftKings): 

He's a bit overlooked at this point. 

TJ likes him as part of a Hurts stack.

Think about it.

Hurts has been great, but the pass catchers haven't been brought along. 

A.J. Brown's been in 10-12% ownership range. 

DeVonta Smith spiked after his big day.

Goedert has been middle of the pack.

Week 5 is weak on TEs…

Only George Kittle is priced above $5,000, and I don't think people will go there. 

You can kind of pick a TE and not worry about ownership. 

Goedert is talented, 

has an 80% route participation,

is 5th in yards per route run,

and ARI is 30th in Schedule-adjusted FP to TEs.

DEF: Titans ($3,000 on DraftKings): 

People will pick Dallas at $2,500. 

Save for the Bills game, Titans have been decent. 

Washington is a bad team, allowing the 3rd-highest sack rate. 

The Titans cost a little more this week,

which should drive that ownership down.

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