🚷 17 reasons you should avoid Michael Thomas

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At first glance, the draft value of the Saints' Michael Thomas looks like a steal.

• Overall ADP 64.8, WR31

Through his first 4 seasons, Thomas was firmly in the top 10 in fantasy PPG.

In fact...

His explosive '19 was one of the best EVER for a WR (23.4 PPG).

Here's why you should fade him in '22:

Let's start with the obvious concern:

The ankle injury.

He's played just 7 games in the last two seasons. None in '21.

While he's currently participating in camp, he started on the PUP list.

Not inspiring.

29 is not ancient for an NFL WR by any means...

But combined with the injury, it doesn't feel young, either.

One study done on high ankle sprains suggests that 27% of players never return to their pre-injury fantasy performance.

(@TheFantasyPT Matthew Betz of The Fantasy Footballers)

Last time we saw Thomas, there were ominous signs (stats from PlayerProfiler).

Career lows in 2020:

• 12 PPG

• 11 yards per reception (83rd)

And that was with Drew Brees.

At least partly due to his ankle...

He went from 3rd in yards after catch in 2019 to 110th in 2020.

(yards per target went from 3.0 to 1.5).

He was also 85th in target separation (1.45 yards).

And 67th in ADOT (9.5).

The Saints themselves have changed since Thomas was on the field.

He has no real meaningful action with Jameis Winston.

Will the opportunities be there?

Last year, NO called the 3rd-highest percentage of running plays.

(per Team Rankings)

Lots of competition for targets too.

Chris Olave is a first rounder with expectations to contribute.

FA addition Jarvis Landry will siphon targets.

And let's not forget that Alvin Kamara has never ranked worse than RB3 in target share any year of his career.

(PlayerProfiler)

There is better value being drafted around the same spot.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the current WR30.

He was WR2 over the last 6 weeks of '21. He's 22 years old.

Want to wait another round or two?

Hunter Renfrow was PPR WR10 in '21. He's going 20 spots later as WR42.

Other examples include guys like Amari Cooper, Drake London, & Christian Kirk.

The list goes on.

Many people are high on Thomas.

But these factors are concerning, and have me thinking BUST.

PrizePicks lists the O/U's for Thomas as 70.5 receptions and 800.5 yards.

Just two years ago, this would have been a solid lock.

Not so sure now.

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