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✅ 17 players you NEED to draft in fantasy

✅ 17 players you NEED to draft in fantasy

BEFORE they break out

Joe Holka
June 26, 2023

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

You can always bet on football. Especially with a late-June best ball fantasy draft.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

Why you need to target these guys 🎯
How to look smart at your draft 🤓
Relevant camp and workout info 💁‍♂️
NFL daily news brief 🗞

Christian Watson (GB) ADP 40.4, WR20:

Watson had a highly efficient rookie season with the opportunities he was given:

• 15th in yards per target (9.4)

• 12th in yards per route run (2.20)

• 1st in fantasy points per target (2.52)

• 16th in contested catch rate (53.3%)

Most impressively, he was 4th in yards after catch per reception (per PFF).

There’s a reason he could do all that so young. His size, speed, and strength matches up with some of the best to ever play the game.

Assuming Jordan Love is ready (more on him later), Watson will play a huge role in the Packer offense.

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), ADP 40.8, RB14:

Gibbs seems to come up here a lot. That’s because he has the unique blend of talent and a near perfect situation.

The talent part:

• 926 rush yards

• 444 receiving yards

• 4.36 40-time at combine (99th%)

• 53% breakaway rate (5th in draft class per PFF)

The near perfect situation:

D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams had 421 touches in ‘22.

Competing for those touches is backfield mate David Montgomery, who is talented but less efficient as a runner.

So Gibbs is a 1st round pick, 3-down threat on a team with lots of touches up for grabs and recent praise from coaches.

It’s screaming breakout!

J.K. Dobbins (BAL), ADP 56.7, RB17:

We’ve been patient with Dobbins, so now’s the time.

In Weeks 14-17, he averaged over 17 carries per game with 93 yards or more in each. That includes breaking 120 in Weeks 14 and 15.

Over the season he still showed the ability to break one:

• 2nd in juke rate (43.5%)

• 3rd in breakaway run rate (10.9%)

Word out of Baltimore is that the players are excited about the new scheme coming in with Todd Monken.

If we get a healthy J.K. Dobbins, we get a big breakout.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), ADP 60.2, WR31:

Seattle is excited about JSN, and fantasy managers are too.

In his last full college season ('21), he led OSU in target share despite playing with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.

His raw stats:

• 95 receptions

• 1,606 receiving yards

• 9 touchdowns on an 84.8% catch rate

He was also 1st in WR receiving grade (PFF).

We’re all waiting to see if Geno Smith can replicate his production from last season and make JSN a big breakout.

Kyle Pitts (ATL) ADP 66.4, TE5:

The upward climb we all expected after his rookie season didn’t quite pan out.

However, even in his unproductive, injury-shortened year:

• 2nd in ADOT (13.1)

• 1st in deep targets (13)

• 2nd in target share (27.3%)

• 1st in air yards share (32.9%)

Better QB play should help turn the 541 unrealized air yards into actual production.

I like Pitts to best his PrizePicks line of 725.5 yards.

Click the image below to get started on that one.

Jordan Addison (MIN), ADP 68, WR35:

Minnesota threw the ball more than nearly everyone else in the league, averaging 39.6 pass attempts per game (3rd).

Addison caught 59 balls for 875 yards at USC in ‘22, but was even more prolific for Pittsburgh the year prior.

In that monster ‘21, he caught 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 TDs. Just big production.

With a robust 26.8% target share.

With Adam Thielen’s inefficiency gone to Carolina, Kirk Cousins can have a lot of fun with Addison in ‘23.

Jahan Dotson (WAS) ADP 76.9, WR40:

Dotson’s usage went way up at the end of the season.

Had 7 targets per game and scored 3 TDs in the last 5.

Dotson's 7 total TDs, top-14 ADOT (13.5), and 14.9 yards per catch are all encouraging signs.

On a team that’s starting a promising rookie at QB, these guys could be ready to build a foundation together.

His good hands hands can get him to the next level.

James Cook (BUF), ADP 96.2, RB30:

Cook will split ground-game work with Damien Harris, who may take some touches in the RZ, but Cook is promising:

• 2nd in true yards per carry (5.3)

• 1st in breakaway run rate (12.1%)

The Bills want to get Cook more involved in the pass game.

Devin Singletary left behind 53 targets and many of those will likely go to Cook. He will showcase those skills.

Those receptions are valuable. We all know it.

Zach Charbonnet (SEA), ADP 102, RB32:

Charbonnet is the pass game complement to Ken Walker.

Last year at UCLA:

• 11.2% target share

• 37 receptions for 321 yards

• 1,329 rushing yards to boot

Recently, the coaching staff has been impressed with Charbonnet in workouts, so he’s going to get a shot.

He may not get the early down work from Walker right away, but keep an eye out for the receiving prowess.

Samaje Perine (DEN), ADP 107, RB34:

He’s another guy I keep going back to.

With the Javonte Williams questions, and this skill set:

• 14th yards in per reception (7.6)

• 15th in yards per route run (1.34)

• 11th fantasy points per opportunity (0.97)

When Perine had to be the main guy for a few weeks, he averaged 23.67 PPR points per game. He can ball.

I know it’s a trendy pick right now, but I’m feeling a big emergence from him.

Brian Robinson (WAS), ADP 107.9, RB35:

Had more than 17 carries per game when healthy in ‘22.

Antonio Gibson may get the bulk of the passing game work, but Robinson showed he is the more efficient runner:

• Juke rate: 28% vs. 16.9%

• Evaded tackles: 60 vs. 33

• Stacked front carry rate: 17.1% vs. 6%

Ultimately, the workload will have to shake itself out in D.C., but I don’t think a huge year is out of the question for BRob.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) ADP131, TE12:

I’ve said this guy would get Kyle Pitts-hype if the Titans pass game was slightly better.

Okonkwo has elite 96th percentile speed and broke 7 tackles in just 32 catches.

Among all ‘22 TEs:

• 11th in ADOT (7.9)

• 2nd in target rate (33.3%)

• 1st in yards per reception (14.1)

• 1st in yards per route run (3.26)

• 3rd in contested catch rate (62.5%)

There are so many ways this guy’s talent has started to flash, and with a 2nd-year developmental leap, it could mean more than that.

Warning shot:

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Greg Dulcich (DEN), ADP 139.5, TE13:

Another trendy pick? Yes.

Dulcich was:

• 3rd in ADOT (10.6)

• 3rd in deep targets (12)

• 9th in yards per catch (12.5)

• 7th in air yards share (18.6%)

• 7th in target separation (2.36)

• 7th in unrealized air yards (312)

In 10 games played, he finished top-12 TE in 5 of them.

The coaches are planning on finding mismatches for Dulcich. That could mean big mismatches for our fantasy squads too, in a good way.

Jordan Love (GB), ADP 152.2, QB20:

Love has great arm strength, pocket presence, AND the ability to keep plays alive with his legs when necessary.

Or so we’ve been told.

QBs who sit for years are rare in today’s NFL, but he was sitting behind a first-ballot HOFer, so maybe it’ll work out.

Word has gotten out that the Packers’ players are really enjoying playing with him and starting to believe the hype.

It doesn’t hurt that Green Bay has the easiest QB strength of schedule (FantasyPros).

Tyquan Thornton (NE), ADP 173.7, WR76:

New England has a history of wasting WR draft picks, but Thornton showed some flash in ‘22, catching on a bit toward the end of the year.

He runs a sub-4.3 40-yard dash.

You can bet the Pats want him involved after using a 2nd rounder on him in ‘22.

Local reports are that he’s looked good in workouts.

He’s a young guy with breakout potential.

Sam Howell (WAS), ADP 196, QB27:

He’s officially won the starting job in Washington.

Ron Rivera recently praised his mobility, footwork, decision-making, and arm strength. That’s a long list of attributes.

Eric Bienemy has a history of getting success out of his QBs, and he’s been teaching Howell with Chiefs game film.

There’s not much tape, but he did score 19.3 fantasy points vs. the Cowboys in his one and only start.

In college, he threw for at least 3,000 yards per season for three straight years. And in 2021, he added an impressive 828 rushing yards. That means immediate upside.

It should translate to a solid fantasy floor.