💥 17 BREAKOUT players

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Just 14 more days until we get our sweet Sundays back!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Who is ready to EXPLODE on the field 💣

• Advanced STATS too tough to ignore 📊 

• The SITUATIONS lining up for big breakouts 🙌 

• The latest NFL news and notes 📰 

Breece Hall (NYJ), ADP 44, RB15:

The start of the season might be slow, and Dalvin Cook may have dampened expectations.

However, the talent has always been there:

• 1st in juke rate (50.5%)

• 1st in yards per touch (6.9)

• 2nd in breakaway run rate (11.3%)

• 3rd in yards created per touch (4.32)

Breece was also 2nd in the league in air yard percentage behind Christian McCaffrey (per Fantasy Life). Pretty good company.

As long as the recovery goes well, look for him to be killing in next to Aaron Rodgers in that Jet offense by midseason.

Rashod Bateman (BAL), ADP 127.3, WR47:

Bateman hasn’t been able to stay on the field thus far in his career but with an expected bump in pace and passing with Todd Monken at OC, this could finally be the breakout year.

His first 3 games before his foot started acting up looked solid:

• 8 grabs

• 226 yards

• 2 touchdowns

And Lamar Jackson has given him his full vote of confidence as the WR1 in the Ravens’ attack.

It depends on health, but I’m liking the potential.

Daniel Jones (NYG), ADP 106.1, QB13:

Jones was actually a LEAGUE WINNER in ‘22 after being the highest scorer in the fantasy playoffs.

His passing metrics have never been elite, but he’s improved greatly under Brian Daboll and should continue to do so.

He was also:

• 5th in accuracy rating (8.0)

• 1st in true completion percentage (75.7%)

• 3rd in red zone completion percentage (64.3%)

Those are fine, and may or may not translate to fantasy success, but the rushing upside DEFINITELY does:

• 3rd in rush TDs (7)

• 5th in rushing yards (708)

• 5th in rushing yards per game (44.3)

Darren Waller, Saquon Barkley, and a cast of others are around to ensure Danny Dimes continues his upward trend.

He’s got the upside of a Jalen Hurts at a CRAZY value.

Jordan Addison (MIN), ADP 95.4, WR38:

Chances are you’ve seen some slick plays from this kid recently. He looks athletic and explosive.

At Pitt back in ‘21 he had a MONSTER season with 1,649 scrimmage yards and 18 TDs.

He saw less volume at USC the next year, but still made top-25 in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade.

Now he steps into one of the league’s prolific attacks, playing across from possibly the best WR in the world.

Kirk Cousins and Minnesota averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game (3rd) in ‘22. And Adam Thielen got 107 targets.

But Thielen was just WR41 in fantasy PPG on some poor efficiency numbers.

Addison can remedy some of that immediately.

He’s got a golden opportunity to step in and help the Vikings reach a new level. Don’t be surprised to find a future star.

Bijan Robinson (ATL), ADP 10.4, RB3:

Bijan is poised for a big rookie breakout.

Atlanta was 2nd in run play percentage last season, even though they often trailed. Tyler Allgeier was the main beneficiary, going for over 1,000 rush yards as a rookie.

However, Robinson is considered the greater talent by a mile.

He has good college stats from ‘22 (12 games):

• 20 total TDs

• 1,580 rush yards

• 16.5 yards per reception

• 104 forced missed tackles

With the return of Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and good backfield mates, Robinson has a true overall RB1 ceiling.

Dalton Schultz (HOU), ADP 127.8, TE12:

The Texans’ offense will undoubtedly run into some growing pains with C.J. Stroud, but he’s considered accurate and represents a raw talent upgrade over Davis Mills.

As for Schultz, he finds himself in a good situation.

After finishing 9th in fantasy PPG (9.5) on the back of 57 catches for 577 yards, he joins a team that targeted 6 different TEs in ‘22.

They combined for 131 targets, 77 catches, and 959 yards.

And 3 of them are no longer on the roster.

Going back to Schultz’s 2021 provides an even rosier look:

• TE3 in fantasy

• Caught 78 balls for 808 yards and 8 TDs

With a little bit of chemistry in the new offense, he could be in line for a huge breakout season.

Javonte Williams (DEN), ADP 66.9, RB23:

After a long recovery, Williams finally looks ready to recapture some of the magic he showed as a rookie back in 2021:

• 13th in targets (53)

• 13th in rushes (203)

• Overall RB14 (204.9 PPR points)

Remember, that was while sharing the backfield with Melvin Gordon, so this guy’s talented for sure.

In 4 games in ‘22 before tearing his knee, he played over 35 snaps per game (19th), and got 47 carries and 16 catches.

(@MBFantasylife)

So if the recovery has been as remarkable as the media is saying, Javonte could bounce back in a big way, even if he starts the year on a reduced workload.

Irv Smith (CIN), ADP 170.5, TE22:

Irv has let us down in fantasy for most of his career, but he’s young and his new situation is hopeful, and he’s the cheapest piece of this Cincinnati Bengal attack.

Hayden Hurst was TE12 in targets in ‘22, and was a top-20 TE whenever Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins missed time. That would mean good opportunity for Irv whenever that situation arises.

He’s had a rough go with injuries, but was 11th in ADOT (8.3), and 8th in yards per reception (12.2) back in 2020 before getting banged up and missing time.

If you believe in the Bengals, which most of us do, you could do far worse on a late-round TE who may finally live up to his potential this year.

Jahan Dotson (WAS), ADP 91.1, WR35:

Dotson got hot toward the end of his rookie year. Over the final 5 games he earned 7 targets per game and scored 3 TDs. On the year, he was a respectable 14th in ADOT (13.5) and 16th in yards per catch (14.9).

Sam Howell has been named the starter in Washington, with Eric Bieniemy calling the plays. He can get the most out of his players by putting them in the best spots to produce.

Terry McLaurin is now injured, and people are catching on to the Dotson potential. Draft away.

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Miles Sanders (CAR), ADP 66.8, RB21:

Sanders is a comeback player pick of mine, even if he’s dealing with an injury at the moment. Word is he’ll be good to go by Week 1.

My faith comes after RB coach Deuce Staley said he wants to get him involved in the pass game.

Sanders was still productive in Philadelphia in ‘22:

• 5th in rush yards (1,269)

• 9th in rushing touchdowns (11)

• 14th in true yards per carry (4.7)

And if you think he can’t handle the load, he was 9th in total snaps (per @MBFantasylife):

Jayden Reed (GB), ADP 201, WR72:

If you like young players with versatility, lots of college reps, and a promising situation, Reed is your guy. Check out his best year at Michigan State, from back in ‘21:

• 59 catches

• 26.3% target share

• 1,026 yards and 10 TDs

That year he had a respectable 2.61 yards per route run and added over 600 special teams yards in a breakout.

The Packers lost Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins, who represented 239 targets.

Romeo Doubs didn’t exactly go nuts last year, producing just 425 yards over 13 games, with 9 RZ targets, and the 77th ADOT.

Plus, Doubs plays more of the outside receiver role most often, while Reed has played all over the field and has the acumen to burst off the line from the slot position.

It all adds up to a very real possibility that he could become Jordan Love’s WR2.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF), ADP 68.7, WR27:

He went for over 1,000 yards last season to finish as WR15.

The reason is the guy gets open…

• 13th in route win rate (47.8%)

• 3rd in target separation (2.31)

With solid raw volume:

• 11th in TDs (8)

• 11th in snap share (91.1%)

• 16th in air yards share (32.5%)

• 17th in yards after the catch (326)

As one of the great athletes on that 49er offense, I believe he’s a great value pick.

Deshaun Watson (CLE), ADP 83.4, QB9:

Watson hasn’t played a full season of football since the pandemic season of 2020, but he has an intriguing floor due to the rushing upside:

• 10th in carries per game (6)

• 11th in rush yards per game (29.2)

And an approximation of his 2020 self would be huge:

• 1st in yards per attempt (8.9)

• 5th deep ball completion % (50.8)

• 7th under pressure accuracy rating (6.7)

The skill position players look good, highlighted by Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and newcomer Elijah Moore, who the coaching staff seems to be excited about.

Watson is a comeback player candidate.

Jaylen Waddle (MIA), ADP 22.9, WR11:

Waddle is a better value than Tyreek Hill and I think it’s completely plausible that he could pass him outright this year.

While the Cheetah gets the volume (31.6% vs. 21.6%), Waddle is the more efficient receiver:

• 1st in yards per target (11.7)

• 1st in yards per reception (18.1)

• 4th in yards per route run (2.81)

All it may take to close the gap between these two is a slight shift in target volume.

Waddle will need a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, since most of his production came with him on the field, but he’s going to produce.

Juwan Johnson (NO), ADP 156.6, TE19:

There have been whisperings that Johnson has been Derek Carr’s best target during team workouts.

In 2022, he popped off in a few ways:

• 4th in TDs (7)

• 6th in ADOT (9.4)

• 9th in air yards (609)

• 9th in unrealized air yards (296)

• 12th in yards per reception (12.1)

He’s a sneaky pick that could pay dividends.

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), ADP 37.2, RB10:

Gibbs was drafted into the perfect situation.

D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams combined for 421 touches last season (361 carries and 60 receptions). Both are gone.

Gibbs projects to get the LION’S SHARE of carries over bunker mate David Montgomery, but don’t be shocked if the split isn’t skewed too dramatically. Monty’s a pro.

Still, after 926 rushing yards and 444 receiving yards at Alabama last year, that balance is crucial to seeing the field.

Kenny Pickett (PIT), ADP 152.4, QB21:

If Pickett shows the type of improvement he showed over the course of the SZN as a rookie, he is a lock to break out.

He had some strengths, particularly on deep passes and passes under pressure (you know, the easy stuff):

• 1st in deep ball catchable rate

• 6th in deep ball accuracy rating

• 1st in pressured catchable pass rate

• 6th in pressured completion percent

He also has some sneaky rushing upside, as he went for 237 yards last season (12th).

But I was most impressed by the Steelers’ penchant for improvement as a team last year.

The offensive line allowed 3 sacks per game from Weeks 1-9, and just 1.3 sacks per game from Week 10 on. Pickett himself got more comfortable too, throwing just 1 of his 9 picks after his first 5 starts. Smart player.

⏳ Kadarius Toney's Return Nears Practice for KC

🚀 Hunter Long Active: Rams' TE Back in Action

🔍 Bears’ Gipson Seeks Trade, Looking for Scheme Fit

🛌 CMC Sits: 49ers Rest McCaffrey with Eye on Season

👟 Okonkwo Expected Back After Minor Leg Injury

🦶 Kicker Cade York Hurt: Browns' Update

🚑 Browns’ Grant Carted Off Field with Injury

📜 Eagles Release QB Ian Book

🗑️ Tyree Jackson Cut: Eagles' Move

🔄 Matthew Wright Waived: Panthers' Kicker Change

Thinking about the guys with wives and girlfriends getting ready to have “the talk” about what Sundays are going to look like very soon. Godspeed, gentlemen.

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