🕑 13 WRs going WAY TOO LATE in drafts

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

The countdown is on! Just 11 more Sundays until we’re sitting on our couches watching the NFL!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Late WRs with BIG upside 📈 

• Why you shouldn’t pass on these guys 💪 

• Make your final picks less of a dice roll 🎲 

• Up-to-date NFL news and notes 🏈 

Michael Pittman (IND), ADP 60.1, WR31:

Pittman didn’t have an amazing season, but it’s interesting to fall so far, even after finishing:

• 17th in fantasy PPG

• 11th in targets (144)

• 8th in receptions (99)

• 1st in snap share (97.1%)

Not only that, but he’s getting open at a consistent rate:

• 7th in route win rate (50.3%)

• 2nd in total route wins (297)

The hangup is a rookie QB making things tougher.

Anthony Richardson may not yet be able to support the volume of a high fantasy performer, but he has the right coach in place for the job.

Overall, Pittman has the tools to be better than WR31.

Marquise Brown (ARI), ADP 59.3, WR30:

He’s is the big winner of DeAndre Hopkins’s release.

In the first 6 weeks sans Hopkins, he averaged 10.6 targets per game, and was dirty from Weeks 3-5.

He scored 20.8 or more every week in that stretch.

That includes 14 catches in Week 3.

In 8 total games without DHop, he had double-digit points in 7 of them, and had 15.4 PPG would have been good for WR8 over ‘22.

Over the entire season, he still earned a respectable 23.7% target rate.

If Kyler Murray returns and can play like himself, he has an existing rapport with Brown to make things pop.

Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch are solid players, but seem the costars to Hollywood Brown’s star turn.

Diontae Johnson (PIT), ADP 63.6, WR34:

Johnson was a victim of circumstance in ‘22.

He was:

• 6th in total targets (147).

• 13th in target share (27%)

• 10th in red zone targets (18)

What’s encouraging is that Johnson did get open a lot. He was 11th in total route wins (240) and ranked 4th in juke rate (15.1%).

With expected improvement in the Pittsburgh offense, Johnson can absolutely become a fantasy darling again.

Mike Evans (TB), ADP 66.8, WR35:

A list of things Evans has NEVER done in a season:

• Earned fewer than 109 targets

• Played in fewer than 13 games

• Finished outside of the top-25 fantasy WRs

• Finished with fewer than 13.8 yards per catch

Even last year (Tom Brady’s weakest?), Evans finished:

• 16th in ADOT (13.4)

• 3rd in deep targets (31)

• 11th in air yards share (35.4%)

• 10th in unrealized air yards (734)

Basically, he’s been as consistent as they come. The QB play will certainly take a hit without Tom Brady, but whoever steps in can support Evans and keep him in the relevant fantasy stratosphere.

Evans on PrizePicks is listed for just 950.5 yards. It would be the least productive year of his career.

I’m taking the OVER.

Treylon Burks (TEN), ADP 68.4, WR36:

He didn’t give us a ton of data as a rookie. His year was derailed by a messy passing game and injuries.

But his talent did show up in certain metrics:

• 19th in contested catch rate

• Respectable 1.96 yards per route run

Things were starting to look better for him around mid-season, as in Week 11 he caught 7 balls for 111 yards.

It was his only top-12 finish before getting hurt again.

Tannehill is a serviceable QB who can support the talent of a guy like Burks and make him draftable.

If he can get rolling while healthy, his stock will rise.

Brandin Cooks (DAL), ADP 81.6, WR43:

He’s not young, but can still stretch the field.

• 25th in deep targets (19)

• 20th in air yards share (31.4%)

• 8th in contested catch rate (60%)

Playing across from CeeDee Lamb will take some coverage pressure off and allow Cooks to get open.

As for Dak Prescott, he was 10th in air yards per attempt and 8th in accuracy rating vs. man - against which Cooks also excels.

The new situation in Dallas is a great spot for Cooks. Grab him at this ADP and make your friends jealous.

Jakobi Meyers, (LV), ADP 119.7, WR56:

Meyers was productive for the Patriots for 4 years.

In a somewhat poor attack in ‘22 he was:

• 20th in total TDs (6)

• 16th in slot snaps (333)

• 19th in yards per route run (2.18)

And he carried the 12th-best dominator rating (30.8%)

Hunter Renfrow’s efficiency took a dip last season when he was just 63rd in fantasy point per game (7.9), 99th in air yards share (10.3%) and 94th in ADOT (6.5).

Josh McDaniels is familiar with Meyers, and I fully expect that will lead to him taking a lot of the slot snaps from Hunter Renfrow.

Lining up next to Davante Adams never hurts, and Meyers is a smart player that will take full advantage.

Nico Collins (HOU), ADP 132.2, WR61:

Collins has a new offensive system, a new (rookie) QB, and enough target competition that he could crash.

However, there’s upside here as well.

In his best stretch last year (Weeks 10-13) he earned 9 targets per game and had 2 finishes inside the top-25.

The aforementioned target competition comes in the form of Robert Woods and some unproven youngsters and other teams’ rejects.

He has a shot to take over as WR1; the scouting report on CJ Stroud is that he can throw with accuracy.

Basically, I think the ADP is way too late here, and Collins has the upside to be well-worth the dice roll.

Van Jefferson (LAR), ADP 142.2, WR65:

He’s one of those guys who gets forgotten because of missing time and a down year for the Rams’ offense.

Matthew Stafford recently voiced his public support, and that will go a long way for a role on the field.

Even in a year that feels irrelevant he was 1st in ADOT (15.6) and 14th in yards per reception (15.4).

LA has some WR question marks after Cooper Kupp, so Jefferson could easily find that 2nd role on the team.

At any rate, he has WR2 upside as a sneaky-late pick.

D. Peoples-Jones (CLE), ADP 161.4, WR72:

He hasn’t been elite, but he was a top-30 WR 6 times and a top-36 10 times in ‘22, and that puts him here.

Also:

• 21st in deep targets (21)

• 17th in snap share (88.5%)

Deshaun Watson will ultimately make or break the season for DPJ.

There are also concerns about target competition.

However, Elijah Moore has no guarantee of making it in Cleveland, and David Njoku hurt his ankle last season.

I think taking the chance on talent is the play here.

Darius Slayton (NYG), ADP 201.4, WR86:

He was a top-25 WR 4 times from Weeks 4-13.

On the whole year, he was:

• 24th in ADOT (12.5)

• 5th in yards per target (10.2)

• 10th in yards per reception (15.7)

• 23rd in yards per route run (2.30)

These are decent numbers for a guy on a seemingly improving offense going into its head coach’s 2nd year.

Daniel Jones was QB9 in fantasy last year on the support of his legs, but limited his turnovers for the first time, and seems to be on the rise.

If he can find Slayton out there with his blazing speed, this will be a win for the Giants, and your fantasy team.

Tim Patrick (DEN), ADP 203.1, WR87:

Patrick feels like a dart throw, but there are reasons to think he may be able to get back to prior production.

Before his injury last training camp he was on the rise, gaining over 700 yards in both ‘20 and ‘21.

He catches the ball down the field too, never finishing a season with fewer than 13.6 yards per reception (13.8 for 29th last year).

The Broncos passing game is due for a facelift this year.

Russell Wilson is in far better shape this summer, suggesting a renewed level of commitment to the success of the team and his own performance.

And of course, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the offensive-minded approach of Sean Payton for Denver.

For a post-200 pick, you could do far worse.

DeVante Parker (NE), ADP 215, WR 100:

Parker was part of a poor New England offense in ‘22, which hurt his fantasy outlook, but he can still play:

• 2nd in ADOT (15.6)

• 2nd in yards per target (11.5)

• 4th in yards per reception (17.4)

• 5th in fantasy points per target (2.19)

He’s coming off the momentum of a 6-catch, 25.9-point game against Buffalo in the 2022 season finale.

The new/old OC for the Pats, Bill O’Brien, knows how to scheme to get the most from his players.

Parker can get back to taking advantage of a good play-action game, and make more of those contested catches on the sideline.

Until NE signs DeAndre Hopkins, Parker should be slotted higher in fantasy drafts.

😡 Commanders OC Brings Intensity to Washington

🔎 On the Hunt: Commanders Possible Landing Spot for RB

✈️ Jets' Pass Rusher Fully Healthy: Expecting Rebound Season

🦁 Injury Concerns Linger for Lions Starter

😅 Close Call: Browns’ WR Secures Roster Spot

✍️ DeAndre Hopkins Seeking More Interest: Is He Close to a Deal?

💪 Steeling the Line: Pittsburgh Signs Draft Pick

😳 Unexpected WR to Play Significant Role in LA

💰 Texans Ink SEC Defensive Player of Year to Rookie Deal

👏 Cordarrelle Patterson to Focus on Pass-Catching Role

Enjoy the rest of your weekend, fantasy managers. See you Monday!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didn’t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.