😏 13 SNEAKY WRs for fantasy football

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Summer’s lease hath all too short a date… so get ready for the football season!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• WRs going WAY TOO LATE ⏰ 

• Find the sleepers BEFORE they wake up 💤 

• A bunch of guys named Moore for some reason 🤷‍♂️

• The player news you need to know from the NFL 🏈 

Tyler Boyd (CIN), ADP 111, WR52:

Yes, the WR room is a little crowded in Cincy, but the 2 superstars, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins missed 6 combined games in ‘22. Whenever one of them is out, Boyd is immediately elevated in the Joe Burrow-led offensive attack.

Boyd ran 602 snaps from the slot last year (2nd), setting him up for shorter underneath passes and allowing him to maintain a 101.7% true catch rate (8th). He was also 8th in fantasy points per target (2.11).

And even with a smaller overall target share, Boyd still had these weekly performances:

• Week 3: 20.5 points

• Week 7: 29.5 points

• Week 15: 14.5 points

So you can find the boom weeks with Boyd on your roster.

Isaiah Hodgins (NYG), ADP 167.3, WR72:

Hodgins caught on nicely at the end of the year for the G-Men. He caught 4 TDs over the final 5 regular season games, and had a MONSTER playoff game vs. Minnesota, catching 8 balls for 105 yards and a score on a broken foot.

If that momentum and toughness continues, he’ll emerge this year for New York.

Hodgins has a huge 6’4” frame and a large catch radius that makes it easy on QBs (8th in catchable target rate), and allows him to get open:

• 1st in route win rate (53%)

• 1st in win rate vs. man (56.5%)

• 7th in fantasy points per target (2.13)

With Daniel Jones improving his game and becoming a top-10 fantasy QB, it’s fair to expect someone in the WR to benefit.

Why not Hodgins?

Skyy Moore (KC), ADP 90.9, WR45:

The departures of Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman (135 targets and over 1,200 yards between them), combined with the injury concerns of Kadarius Toney make Moore a sneaky good pick here in the 90s.

Moore was actually 6th in yards after the catch per reception (PFF), and by all accounts is a super hard worker who is attempting to gain more traction in the favor of Patrick Mahomes.

Running the slot snaps in the Chiefs’ offense isn’t the worst job to have. Moore can take advantage and return draft value.

Rondale Moore (ARI), ADP 136.8, WR60:

Rondale’s 40-time, agility score, and burst score are 94th percentile or better, and they help him get OPEN:

• 21st in route win rate (45.6%)

• 13th in target separation (2.13)

• 2nd in target separation vs. man

He also has a crazy productive year on his college resume from 2018, when he had 114 catches for 1,258 yards and 12 scores.

The Cardinals have questions, most notably around Kyler Murray, but D’Andre Hopkins is gone, bumping up the others.

It puts Moore at WR2.

With a little injury luck, he could turn out to be a huge value.

Gabe Davis (BUF), ADP 68.9, WR35:

Davis is seen as a boom-or-bust guy, and that’s largely true. Still, that Buffalo WR depth isn’t great after Stefon Diggs, and Davis still showed some chops in his metrics:

• 6th in ADOT (15.2)

• 12th in deep targets (24)

• 9th in snap share (91.5%)

• 3rd in yards per reception (17.4)

With the Buffalo offense still one of the more potent in the league, Davis should be in line for enough targets from Josh Allen to produce, especially if you can find him when he’s on.

Jahan Dotson (WAS), ADP 74.4, WR39:

Dotson got hot toward the end of his rookie year. Over the final 5 games he earned 7 targets per game and scored 3 TDs. On the year, he was a respectable 14th in ADOT (13.5) and 16th in yards per catch (14.9).

Sam Howell has been named the starter in Washington, with Eric Bieniemy calling the plays. He can get the most out of his players by putting them in the best spots to produce.

So while Dotson may be considered the WR2 behind Terry McLaurin, his talent is making fantasy managers look twice.

Keep Dotson in mind as a WR3 with a much higher upside.

After scoring 7 TDs in 12 games last year, is there any way he doesn’t best his PrizePicks SZN prop of 4.5? I don’t think so.

Jayden Reed (GB), ADP 168.3, WR73:

If you like young players with versatility, lots of college reps, and a promising situation, Reed is your guy. Check out his best year at Michigan State, from back in ‘21:

• 59 catches

• 26.3% target share

• 1,026 yards and 10 TDs

That year he had a respectable 2.61 yards per route run and added over 600 special teams yards in a breakout.

The Packers lost Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins, who represented 239 targets.

Romeo Doubs didn’t exactly go nuts last year, producing just 425 yards over 13 games, with 9 RZ targets, and the 77th ADOT.

Plus, Doubs plays more of the outside receiver role most often, while Reed has played all over the field and has the acumen to burst off the line from the slot position.

It all adds up to a very real possibility that he could become Jordan Love’s WR2.

At this late of a draft position, I think it’s a no brainer to target him, especially at the expense of Doubs.

Q. Johnston (LAC), ADP 79.7, WR40:

He’s young, athletic, slippery, and Mike Williams has a very long list of injuries. That means Johnston could be challenging for playing time very early in the season.

Last year in college he was 6th in yards after the catch per reception and 11th in missed tackles forced (PFF). That will work out well in the high volume LA offense.

He also had over 1,000 yards on a 21.2% target share.

He’s one of the rookies to watch owing to talent and situation.

Elijah Moore (CLE), ADP 87.5, WR44:

Moore didn’t have a great year in 2022. In fact, he took a gigantic step back from his rookie season in virtually all important metrics.

But that ‘21 year he did show promise:

• 20th in TDs (6)

• 19th in juke rate (14%)

• 9th in route win rate (47.8%)

A lot will come down to how the Browns deploy him and how the chips fall around Deshaun Watson’s return.

But ultimately, I’m willing to roll the dice on someone with talent in a brand new situation.

Zay Jones (JAX), ADP 125.2, WR57:

By all accounts, Jones had a fairly successful year in ‘22, as overall WR26 and 31st in points per game, and the Jaguars offense looks to be on the rise.

I’ve been vocal about Calvin Ridley returning to form, and he’ll surely command a large target share, but Jones has some good things going for him:

• 12th in RZ targets (16)

• 17th in total receptions (82)

• 14th in target separation (2.12)

• 25th in yards after the catch (305)

• 4 weeks as a WR1 (top 12) and another as a WR2

In the first preseason game, he played in 2 WR sets across from Calvin Ridley, which is promising for volume numbers on a team that was 12th in pass play percentage.

There should be plenty of opportunity to go around in the panhandle, and Jones will see enough looks to contribute.

Take a chance at this price and grab a piece of the Jags.

D. Douglas (NE), ADP 215.8, WR108:

Alright, I’m reaching WAY down here. Douglas is a sleeper so deep he could have saved those Titanic submarine guys.

In all seriousness, this kid has impressed Patriots’ coaches big time during camp, and we know Bill Belichick isn’t afraid to give unheralded guys a shot when they earn it.

Hailing from Liberty University, Douglas caught 79 passes for 993 yards in ‘22, and he wants to take some of that production to the New England offense. He didn’t get much time in the preseason opener, which could be a good thing, since most of the starters didn’t play.

And Juju Smith-Schuster is highly encouraged by the things the kid can do so far in camp workouts.

Let’s not get carried away, but Douglas is starting to make enough noise that he should be on your radar at least.

Chase Claypool (CHI), ADP 206.5, WR87:

The Bears’ passing attack is primed to be a lot better in ‘23, with Justin Fields working on his mechanics, and the infusion of some much-needed talent on the roster.

D.J. Moore is the clear WR1 there, but beyond him are some intriguing names including Darnell Mooney and Claypool.

We tend to forget after a down year (or 2), but Claypool has speed, burst, and agility scores that combine to make him a special athlete, and earned 5 or more targets in 4 of his games with the Bears.

In terms of dart throws this late, you could do worse.

John Metchie (HOU), ADP 179.5, WR77:

Anyone who can beat cancer and come back to join an NFL team is already a winner in my book.

That shows toughness, grit, and a commitment to the game that most guys rarely get a chance to show.

Metchie himself is a talented kid who handled a 23.3% target share for Alabama back in ‘21. He flipped that opportunity into 96 catches for 1,142 yards and 8 TDs.

I’ve been high on Nico Collins, but if Metchie can earn the slot role, he will have some value down in Houston.

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Tuesday’s gone with the wind… See you Wednesday.

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