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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The next STARS of fantasy football ⭐

• Duds from ‘22 primed to BREAK BIG 🤘

• Today’s NFL OTA news 📰

• Injury and contract updates 🏥

13 Breakout Players to help you THRIVE in 2023 Fantasy Football:

Justin Fields (CHI), ADP 44.7, QB5:

I know what you’re thinking — Fields already “broke out” last year.

True, but he’s here because the expected passing game improvement will elevate him to the ranks of the truly elite.

Why?

For one, the addition of D.J. Moore will allow guys like Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool to get comfortable in more defined roles.

Secondly, the offensive line has been beefed up.

OC Luke Getsy recently said Fields is “light years ahead” of last season in terms of footwork and accuracy (per NBC Sports Chicago).

Combined with the existing rushing upside, Fields should break out big.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), ADP 60.2, WR31:

Seattle spent a 1st-rounder on Smith-Njigba, so you know they’ll want him in the mix right away.

In his last full college season, 2021, he led Ohio State in target share despite playing alongside Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.

We know those two guys can play in the league.

JSN posted a 95-1606-9 line that year with an 84.8% catch rate.

He was also first in yards per route run and first in receiving grade (per PFF).

There will be competition for targets with the well-established duo of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, but a breakout is very plausible.

Kyle Pitts (ATL) ADP 66.4, TE5:

I know, I know. He burned us last season.

If you drafted Pitts at his 3rd-round price tag, my condolences.

Pitts may live up to the more reasonable ADP this season.

Even without the raw production, Pitts in ‘22 among TEs:

• 2nd in ADOT (13.1)

• 1st in deep targets (13)

• 2nd in target share (27.3%)

• 1st in air yards share (32.9%)

He had the most unrealized air yards (541), suggesting that a slight improvement in QB play will boost him.

And of course, he’s still freakishly athletic, with elite speed and burst.

Jordan Addison (MIN), ADP 68, WR35:

The Vikings were third in the NFL in ‘22 with 39.6 pass attempts per game.

Theoretically, Addison is the replacement for 32-year-old Adam Thielen.

Thielen commanded 107 targets in ‘22, but was inefficient with them:

He was 88th in yards per route run and 66th in ADOT. Meh.

The rookie should add some much-needed athleticism across from Justin Jefferson.

And until K.J. Osborn can prove he has the trust of Kirk Cousins, I’m banking on Addison to break out.

PrizePicks has him listed for 825.5 yards. It might be a bit too high for me.

Check it out below:

Cam Akers (LAR), ADP 76.1, RB23:

Akers finally busted loose starting in Week 14 last year.

From that point on he was a top-25 PPR RB, and even had a 3-TD game in Week 16 to finish as the top scorer.

In the last 3 weeks, the Rams really upped his usage:

• Routes went from 5 to 15 per game.

• Carries went up from just over 10 to 21 per game.

If you were patient with Akers last year, it paid off in the fantasy playoffs.

You may not have to wait that long in 2023.

Jahan Dotson (WAS) ADP 76.9, WR40:

Dotson opens the year as second-fiddle to Terry McLaurin, but I see some big breakout potential on the horizon.

His usage went way up over the final 5 games last season when he earned 7 targets per game and scored 3 times.

His 7 total TDs and a top-14 ADOT (13.5) are both encouraging signs.

As is his 16th-ranked 14.9 yards per catch.

The big hang-up is the Commanders’ QB situation.

Whether Jacoby Brissett or Sam Howell starts will have real implications for Dotson’s ability to break out. We’ll keep watching.

James Cook (BUF), ADP 96.2, RB30:

Cook actually had the no. 1 breakaway run rate (12.1%) and the 2nd-highest true yards per carry (5.3).

Even with Devin Singletary in town, Cook earned a 31.2% opportunity share.

Now, he may lose some carries to Damien Harris — particularly in the red zone — but he is the most viable pass-catcher in Buffalo’s RB room.

Metrics tell us that a fantasy reception is worth about 2.5x more than a carry, due to the reception point and the higher yardage output (per @SalVetriDFS).

If so, Cook has a significant chance to out-perform the ADP.

Anthony Richardson (IND), ADP 94.3, QB10:

Richardson’s rushing prowess provides immediate fantasy value.

He’s an athletic freak, in the 99th percentile for 40-yard dash and burst score among QBs — that’s ALL TIME.

Questions remain about his passing ability, BUT…

At this stage he’s said to be a better passer than either Josh Allen or Cam Newton were when they were drafted, just with better athleticism.

(per @RyNoonan)

New HC Shane Steichen helped Jalen Hurts become JALEN HURTS over the last couple of seasons in Philadelphia.

If he can do that for Richardson, we could see more of the same.

Richardson is an especially big target in dynasty leagues.

Brian Robinson (WAS), ADP 107.9, RB35:

Robinson carried the ball more than 17 times per game when healthy last season.

He may not take too much of the passing game from Antonio Gibson, but he is significantly more efficient as a runner:

• Juke rate: 28% vs. 16.9%

• Evaded tackles: 60 vs. 33

• Stacked front carry rate: 17.1% vs. 6%

This is the year he emerges at the true RB1 for Washington.

Dalton Kincaid (BUF), ADP123.9, TE11:

The Bills targeted Kincaid in the first round of the NFL draft.

As a pure pass-catcher, he earned a 21.7% target share at Utah last year, scoring 8 TDs and gaining 890 yards.

That’s nothing to scoff at.

The elephant in the room is Dawson Knox, who is more established and has a relationship with Josh Allen.

However, there’s no denying the skill.

If there’s room for more 2-TE sets in Buffalo, these guys can complement each other well.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) ADP131, TE12:

If the Titans’ pass game was a little more explosive, the fantasy world would be hyping this guy like we do Kyle Pitts.

Among ‘22 TEs:

• 11th in ADOT (7.9)

• 2nd in target rate (33.3%)

• 1st in yards per route run (3.26)

• 1st in yards per reception (14.1)

• 3rd in contested catch rate (62.5%)

He’s got elite 96th percentile speed and had 7 broken tackles in just 32 catches.

Okonkwo will could payoff big for fantasy managers.

Jordan Love (GB), ADP 152.2, QB20:

It would be strange to have a non-relevant Packer QB after all these years.

Love is said to have great arm strength and passing motion, and a good pocket presence with the ability to keep plays alive with his legs.

Among his knocks are his ability to read defenses, but he’s been sitting behind Rodgers for 3 seasons. That should be much improved by now.

The Packers have the easiest strength of schedule for QBs (per FantasyPros)

And even if he struggles, remember… Love conquers all. (sorry)

Tyquan Thornton (NE), ADP 173.7, WR76:

Thornton is BLAZING fast, with a 4.28 40-time that’s the top of the heap.

He didn’t get a lot of looks as a rookie in the Pats’ inefficient offensive attack.

But he did have a decent game late in the year:

• 3-60-1 vs. Miami in Week 17.

His 2nd-round draft pedigree means New England is going to look for him to be involved this year, and that’s played out at OTAs:

So far, he’s been heavily involved as the Pats’ WR1 over DeVante Parker and Juju Smith-Shuster.

(@MikeReiss)

👨‍🍳 Vikings set Dalvin Cook free, NFL teams salivate

🐱 Rookie Bryce Young dazzles, Panthers' offense purrs

🔥 Khalil Herbert sizzles, Bears' RB competition heats up

🦶 Jaycee Horn's foot injury throws shade on Panthers' OTAs

⚡ Justin Herbert slings it in Chargers' OTA comeback

🔨 Trade rumors swirl around Vikings' EDGE Danielle Hunter

🩹 Darnell Mooney ankle update: Bears' speedy WR on the mend

👀 Titans host WR DeAndre Hopkins for a visit

🌡 Titans vow to feed RB Tyjae Spears; Henry's backup will feast

⏲ Tyreek Hill levels up in Dolphins' offense, speedometer explodes

That’s it for today!

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