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📉 10 Players Who Will Regress in 2024

📉 10 Players Who Will Regress in 2024

Don't expect their usual output

Joe Holka
July 19, 2024

10 Players Who Will Regress in Fantasy Football in 2024

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No one stays at the top forever. Today I’m exposing 10 popular fantasy players who are due for a regression in 2024.

Kirk Cousins (ATL), ADP 146.4, QB18

After 6 productive seasons in Minnesota, Cousins signed a huge contract with the Falcons. He’s been brought in specifically to help make the offense more explosive. After all, in the last 2 years Kirk has thrown 12 more touchdowns than Falcons’ QBs — in 9 fewer games.

But, you’re crazy if you think he’ll match his usual output coming off a torn Achilles as age 36. So tread lightly, and keep your eye on Cousins as a waiver or a late round backup.

David Njoku (CLE), ADP 102.0, TE12

Njoku was a Top-5 TE in 2023, finally getting to show off his substantial athletic ability. He had 81 receptions for 882 yards and 6 TDs, all career highs.

But, that production didn’t come with Deshaun Watson. Those games resulted in only two Top-12 finishes and 3 games outside the top-20. So with Joe Flacco gone from Cleveland, Njoku is likely to take a step back.

Alvin Kamara (NO), ADP 77.0, RB18

Kamara had some really good stretches as a receiver last year. He caught 75 balls and finished 3rd in fantasy points per game. His target percentage even exceeded that of Christian McCaffrey.

But, he hasn’t played a full season since 2018 and saw his snap share decline last year. Kendre Miller is waiting in the wings, and Jamaal Williams could siphon some carries too. So, at age 29 Kamara is due to regress.

Derrick Henry (BAL), ADP 30.0, RB9

King Henry joins a fun offensive situation in Baltimore this year. Playing with Lamar Jackson should raise his outlook.

But, Henry declined to 23rd in fantasy points per game last year, which was his lowest finish sine 2018. His massive frame has endured 690 touches over the last 2 seasons. So, the wear and tear may catch up with him in his 9th season.

Stefon Diggs (HOU), ADP 32.1, WR23

Diggs has been a solid fantasy pick for years playing with Josh Allen in Buffalo. He hasn’t finished lower than 13th in fantasy points per game since 2018.

But, things won’t be so smooth in Houston. The WR room is far more crowded there. Nico Collins and Tank Dell have already built a rapport with C.J. Stroud. Diggs also has concerns about his attitude. So, I don’t think he’ll be up to his usual standards in 2024.

Baker Mayfield (TB), ADP 169, QB22

Baker enjoyed a career year in 2023 in terms of passing yards, completion rate, and passing touchdowns. He seemed to enjoy throwing the ball to guys like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

But, the NFC South is tougher this year, so he’ll need to elevate his game to maintain that high level of play. I don’t see him as a viable starter most weeks.

Michael Pittman (IND), ADP 33.9 WR24

Pittman can be a dream deep threat wideout when the matchup is right. Last year he enjoyed the number 4 target share and was 9th in red zone targets, which is what we want to see from our fantasy wideouts.

But, we know the Colts will lean run-heavy. Anthony Richardson’s deep-ball accuracy is questionable too. So, if Pittman’s air yards suffer, then so will his fantasy output.

Raheem Mostert (MIA), ADP 94.7, RB28

Mostert was fun to watch last season. He was a scoring machine, leading the league in touchdowns scored and showing some of the most dominant play of his career.

But, he’s going into his age 32 season. 21 touchdowns is impressive unsustainable for any player. And, De’Von Achane is one of the most explosive and efficient backs in all of football. So, Mostert won’t reach his 2023 heights.

Austin Ekeler (WAS), ADP 129.9, RB40

It was fun owning Ekeler in fantasy football in 2021 and 2022. He scored 38 touchdowns in that stretch and finished near the top of most fantasy football running back metrics.

But, Ekeler started to look absolutely cooked as a lead back last year. His efficiency suffered, and his touchdown output regressed way down to just 6 total TDs. This year he’ll have to share the Washington backfield with Brian Robinson, who’s a younger and more durable back. He’s an upgrade over Antonio Gibson, but it’s unclear just how much at this point in his career. So, I’d pass on him in drafts.

Cooper Kupp, (LAR), ADP 27.9 WR21

Kupp is basically the wide receiver version of Ekeler. He had a couple of incredibly dominant years, and took it to every defense he faced.

But, take into consideration age, injury history, and the presence of Puka Nacua in L.A. So if we’re exposing a player most-likely to continue to regress in fantasy, Kupp is the guy.