DK Metcalf (PIT), ADP 52, WR22

DK Metcalf heads to Pittsburgh as the WR1… but the setup is a landmine. He’ll be playing in Arthur Smith’s system — the same offense that’s ranked Bottom-10 in pass rate over expectation the last 5 years. And while Smith says he’ll adapt, the team paid Rodgers and Metcalf… and still plans to lean on the highest—paid defense in football.

But here’s the killer stat: Metcalf ranked 91st in true catch rate, 43rd in yards per route, and relied on a career-high 31.5% deep target rate — the riskiest profile you can have in a low-volume attack. So even if Rodgers plays well, Metcalf’s role is boom-bust by design… and his route timing could clash hard with Rodgers’ perfectionist tendencies. WR22 is priced like a breakout — but all you’re getting is frustration.